Evidence map›Paper›PMID 37105743›Full record

Observational studyThe British journal of general practice : the journal of the Royal College of General Practitioners2023

Impact of COVID-19 pandemic on incidence of long-term conditions in Wales: a population data linkage study using primary and secondary care health records.

Cathy Qi, Tim Osborne, Rowena Bailey, Alison Cooper, Joe P Hollinghurst, Ashley Akbari, Ruth Crowder, Holly Peters, Rebecca-Jane Law, Ruth Lewis and 3 more

Open access · hybridAbstract readObservational Study
In one paragraph

Observational study in The British journal of general practice : the journal of the Royal College of General Practitioners, 2023. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 21 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
21citing papers in PubMed
6.4field-weighted citation impact, top 3% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

21 citing papers in PubMed, 30 citations in OpenAlex.

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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

13 authors at 4 institutions in 1 country.

Cathy QiPopulation Data Science, Swansea University Medical School, Faculty of Medicine, Health & Life Science, Swansea University, Swansea.ORCID 0000-0002-0147-1985
Tim OsbornePopulation Data Science, Swansea University Medical School, Faculty of Medicine, Health & Life Science, Swansea University, Swansea.ORCID 0000-0002-0928-3364
Rowena BaileyPopulation Data Science, Swansea University Medical School, Faculty of Medicine, Health & Life Science, Swansea University, Swansea.ORCID 0000-0003-2409-2045
Alison CooperWales COVID-19 Evidence Centre, Division of Population Medicine, Cardiff University, Cardiff.ORCID 0000-0001-8660-6721
Joe P HollinghurstPopulation Data Science, Swansea University Medical School, Faculty of Medicine, Health & Life Science, Swansea University, Swansea.
Ashley AkbariPopulation Data Science, Swansea University Medical School, Faculty of Medicine, Health & Life Science, Swansea University, Swansea.ORCID 0000-0003-0814-0801
Ruth CrowderDirectorate of Primary Care and Mental Health, Health and Social Services Group, Welsh Government, Cardiff.
Holly PetersCentre for Medical Education, Cardiff University, Cardiff.
Rebecca-Jane LawTechnical Advisory Cell, Health and Social Services Group, Welsh Government, Cardiff.
Ruth LewisNorth Wales Centre for Primary Care Research, PRIME Centre Wales, Bangor University, Bangor.
Deb SmithWales COVID-19 Evidence Centre, Division of Population Medicine, Cardiff University, Cardiff.
Adrian EdwardsWales COVID-19 Evidence Centre, Division of Population Medicine, Cardiff University, Cardiff.ORCID 0000-0002-6228-4446
Ronan A LyonsPopulation Data Science, Swansea University Medical School, Faculty of Medicine, Health & Life Science, Swansea University, Swansea.ORCID 0000-0001-5225-000X
Swansea University · GBCardiff University · GBWelsh Government · GBBangor University · GB

Funding

Medical Research Council MR/V028367/1
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundThe COVID-19 pandemic has directly and indirectly had an impact on health service provision owing to surges and sustained pressures on the system. The effects of these pressures on the management of long-term or chronic conditions are not fully understood.

aimTo explore the effects of COVID-19 on the recorded incidence of 17 long-term conditions. DESIGN AND

settingThis was an observational retrospective population data linkage study on the population of Wales using primary and secondary care data within the Secure Anonymised Information Linkage (SAIL) Databank.

methodMonthly rates of new diagnosis between 2000 and 2021 are presented for each long-term condition. Incidence rates post-2020 were compared with expected rates predicted using time series modelling of pre-2020 trends. The proportion of annual incidence is presented by sociodemographic factors: age, sex, social deprivation, ethnicity, frailty, and learning disability.

resultsA total of 5 476 012 diagnoses from 2 257 992 individuals are included. Incidence rates from 2020 to 2021 were lower than mean expected rates across all conditions. The largest relative deficit in incidence was in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease corresponding to 343 (95% confidence interval = 230 to 456) undiagnosed patients per 100 000 population, followed by depression, type 2 diabetes, hypertension, anxiety disorders, and asthma. A GP practice of 10 000 patients might have over 400 undiagnosed long-term conditions. No notable differences between sociodemographic profiles of post- and pre-2020 incidences were observed.

conclusionThere is a potential backlog of undiagnosed patients with multiple long-term conditions. Resources are required to tackle anticipated workload as part of COVID-19 recovery, particularly in primary care.

Indexed as

COVID-19Diabetes Mellitus, Type 2HumansIncidenceInformation Storage and RetrievalPandemicsRetrospective StudiesSecondary Health CareWalesanxietychronic diseaseCOVID-19diagnosisprimary health care

Identifiers

PMID37105743
PMCPMC9997656
OpenAlexW4317757499

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.