Evidence map›Paper›PMID 37104243›Full record

ArticleEnvironmental health perspectives2023

Assessing the Influence of Climate on the Spatial Pattern of West Nile Virus Incidence in the United States.

Morgan E Gorris, James T Randerson, Shane R Coffield, Kathleen K Treseder, Charles S Zender, Chonggang Xu, Carrie A Manore

Open access · diamondAbstract read
PubMed Full text at PMC Publisher
In one paragraph

Article in Environmental health perspectives, 2023. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 15 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
15citing papers in PubMed
5.8field-weighted citation impact, top 4% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

15 citing papers in PubMed, 20 citations in OpenAlex.

  1. Article
  2. Predicting West Nile virus circulation: a 20-year spatiotemporal study in humans and animals in Spain, 2003 to 2022.Euro surveillance : bulletin Europeen sur les maladies transmissibles = European communicable disease bulletin · 2026
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

7 authors at 2 institutions in 1 country.

Morgan E GorrisInformation Systems and Modeling, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, New Mexico, USA.ORCID 0000-0003-3949-4274
James T RandersonDepartment of Earth System Science, University of California, Irvine, Irvine, California, USA.
Shane R CoffieldDepartment of Earth System Science, University of California, Irvine, Irvine, California, USA.
Kathleen K TresederDepartment of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of California, Irvine, Irvine, California, USA.
Charles S ZenderDepartment of Earth System Science, University of California, Irvine, Irvine, California, USA.
Chonggang XuEarth and Environmental Sciences Division, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, New Mexico, USA.
Carrie A ManoreTheoretical Biology and Biophysics, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, New Mexico, USA.
University of California, Irvine · USLos Alamos National Laboratory · US

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundWest Nile virus (WNV) is the leading cause of mosquito-borne disease in humans in the United States. Since the introduction of the disease in 1999, incidence levels have stabilized in many regions, allowing for analysis of climate conditions that shape the spatial structure of disease incidence.

objectivesOur goal was to identify the seasonal climate variables that influence the spatial extent and magnitude of WNV incidence in humans.

methodsWe developed a predictive model of contemporary mean annual WNV incidence using U.S. county-level case reports from 2005 to 2019 and seasonally averaged climate variables. We used a random forest model that had an out-of-sample model performance of

resultsOur model accurately captured the V-shaped area of higher WNV incidence that extends from states on the Canadian border south through the middle of the Great Plains. It also captured a region of moderate WNV incidence in the southern Mississippi Valley. The highest levels of WNV incidence were in regions with dry and cold winters and wet and mild summers. The random forest model classified counties with average winter precipitation levels DISCUSSION: We consider which aspects of the WNV transmission cycle climate conditions may benefit the most and argued that dry and cold winters are climate conditions optimal for the mosquito species key to amplifying WNV transmission. Our statistical model may be useful in projecting shifts in WNV risk in response to climate change. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP10986.

Indexed as

West Nile FeverWest Nile virusAnimalsCanadaCold TemperatureHumansIncidenceUnited States

Identifiers

PMID37104243
PMCPMC10137712
OpenAlexW4367173955

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.