ArticleStrahlentherapie und Onkologie : Organ der Deutschen Rontgengesellschaft ... [et al]2023
A nomogram to predict the cumulative risk for brain metastases in patients with limited-stage small cell lung cancer without prophylactic cranial irradiation.
Article in Strahlentherapie und Onkologie : Organ der Deutschen Rontgengesellschaft ... [et al], 2023. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 3 papers.
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3 citing papers in PubMed, 4 citations in OpenAlex.
- Machine Learning-Based Prediction of Brain Metastasis at Initial Diagnosis in Small-Cell Lung Cancer: Model Development and SHAP Interpretation Study.Cancer reports (Hoboken, N.J.) · 2026Article
- Construction of a nomogram to guide prophylactic cranial irradiation in extensive‑stage small cell lung cancer.Oncology letters · 2025Article
- Construction of brain metastasis prediction model in limited stage small cell lung cancer patients without prophylactic cranial irradiation.The clinical respiratory journal · 2024Article
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10 authors at 2 institutions in 1 country.
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Abstract
objectivePatients with small cell lung cancer (SCLC) have a high risk of developing brain metastases (BM). Prophylactic cranial irradiation (PCI) is a standard therapy for limited-stage SCLC (LS-SCLC) patients who achieved complete or partial response after thoracic chemoradiotherapy (Chemo-RT). Recent studies have indicated that a subgroup of patients with a lower risk of BM can avoid PCI, and the present study therefore tries to construct a nomogram to predict the cumulative risk of development of BM in LS-SCLC patients without PCI.
methodsAfter screening of 2298 SCLC patients who were treated at the Zhejiang Cancer Hospital from December 2009 to April 2016, a total of 167 consecutive patients with LS-SCLC who received thoracic Chemo-RT without PCI were retrospectively analyzed. The paper analyzed clinical and laboratory factors that may be correlated with BM, such as response to treatment, pretreatment serum neuron-specific enolase (NSE) and lactate dehydrogenase (LDH) levels, and TNM stage. Thereafter, a nomogram was constructed to predict 3‑ and 5‑year intracranial progression-free survival (IPFS).
resultsOf 167 patients with LS-SCLC, 50 developed subsequent BM. Univariate analysis showed that pretreatment LDH (pre-LDH) ≥ 200 IU/L, an incomplete response to initial chemoradiation, and UICC stage III were positively correlated to a higher risk of BM (p < 0.05). Multivariate analysis identified pretreatment LDH level (hazard ratio [HR] 1.90, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.08-3.34, p = 0.026), response to chemoradiation (HR 1.87, 95% CI 1.04-3.34, p = 0.035), and UICC stage (HR 6.67, 95% CI 1.03-49.15, p = 0.043) as independent predictors for the development of BM. A nomogram model was then established, and areas under the curve of 3‑year and 5‑year IPFS were 0.72 and 0.67, respectively.
conclusionThe present study has developed an innovative tool that is able to predict the individual cumulative risk for development of BM in LS-SCLC patients without PCI, which is beneficial for providing personalized risk estimates and facilitating the decision to perform PCI.
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