ArticleScientific reports2023
Anthropogenic influence on extreme temperature and precipitation in Central Asia.
Article in Scientific reports, 2023. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 2 papers.
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Who cites it
2 citing papers in PubMed.
- Selecting the optimal gridded climate dataset for Nigeria using advanced time series similarity algorithms.Environmental science and pollution research international · 2024Article
- Projection of climate change impacts on extreme temperature and precipitation in Central Poland.Scientific reports · 2023Article
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Authors and funding
6 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
We investigate the contribution of anthropogenic forcing to the extreme temperature and precipitation events in Central Asia (CA) during the last 60 years. We bias-adjust and downscale two Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP) ensemble outputs, with natural (labelled as hist-nat, driven only by solar and volcanic forcing) and natural plus anthropogenic forcing (labelled as hist, driven by all-forcings), to [Formula: see text] spatial resolution. Each ensemble contains six models from ISIMIP, based on the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6). The presented downscaling methodology is necessary to create a reliable climate state for regional climate impact studies. Our analysis shows a higher risk of extreme heat events (factor 4 in signal-to-noise ratio) over large parts of CA due to anthropogenic influence. Furthermore, a higher likelihood of extreme precipitation over CA, especially over Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, can be attributed to anthropogenic forcing (over 100[Formula: see text] changes in intensity and 20[Formula: see text] in frequency). Given that these regions show a high risk of rainfall-triggered landslides and floods during historical times, we report that human-induced climate warming can contribute to extreme precipitation events over vulnerable areas of CA. Our high-resolution data set can be used in impact studies focusing on the attribution of extreme events in CA and is freely available to the scientific community.
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Registered trials
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