ArticleProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America2023
Multiple models for outbreak decision support in the face of uncertainty.
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Article in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2023. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 21 papers.
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21citing papers in PubMed
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Who cites it
21 citing papers in PubMed.
- Adaptive multi-model ensembles for improved epidemic projections and decision support.medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences · 2026Article
- A Software Platform for Collaborative Infectious Disease Modeling.Nature health · 2026Article
- A multi-host mechanistic model of African swine fever emergence and control in Romania.Nature communications · 2026Article
- Optimal algorithms for controlling infectious diseases in real time using noisy infection data.PLoS computational biology · 2025Article
- Ensemble approaches for short-term dengue fever forecasts: A global evaluation study.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2025Article
- Comparative evaluation of behavioral epidemic models using COVID-19 data.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2025Article
- Exploring the influencing factors affecting the operational effectiveness of public health emergency response mechanism: a DEMATEL-ISM-MICMAC mixed methods study.BMC public health · 2025Article
- Understanding Nash epidemics.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2025Article
- Asymmetric limits on timely interventions from noisy epidemic data.Communications physics · 2025Article
- Case management of mpox: Where we are and where we desire to be.Journal of public health in Africa · 2025Article
- The utility of infectious disease modelling in informing decisions for outbreak response: A scoping review.PLOS global public health · 2025Article
- Quantum-Like Approaches Unveil the Intrinsic Limits of Predictability in Compartmental Models.Entropy (Basel, Switzerland) · 2024Article
- Projecting the future impact of emerging SARS-CoV-2 variants under uncertainty: Modeling the initial Omicron outbreak.Epidemics · 2024Article
- Agent-based modeling of the COVID-19 pandemic in Florida.Epidemics · 2024Article
- Scenario design for infectious disease projections: Integrating concepts from decision analysis and experimental design.Epidemics · 2024Article
- The US COVID-19 and Influenza Scenario Modeling Hubs: Delivering long-term projections to guide policy.Epidemics · 2024Article
- Evaluation of the US COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub for informing pandemic response under uncertainty.Nature communications · 2023Article
- Scenario Design for Infectious Disease Projections: Integrating Concepts from Decision Analysis and Experimental Design.medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences · 2023Article
- When the role of uncertainty is…uncertain.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2023Article
- Spatial dynamics of malaria transmission.PLoS computational biology · 2023Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
78 authors.
Katriona SheaDepartment of Biology, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA 16802.ORCID 0000-0002-7607-8248
Rebecca K BorcheringDepartment of Biology, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA 16802.ORCID 0000-0003-4309-2913
William J M ProbertNuffield Department of Medicine, Big Data Institute, Li Ka Shing Centre for Health Information and Discovery, University of Oxford, Oxford OX3 7LF, United Kingdom.ORCID 0000-0002-3437-759X
Emily HowertonDepartment of Biology, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA 16802.ORCID 0000-0002-0639-3728
Tiffany L BogichDepartment of Biology, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA 16802.ORCID 0000-0002-8143-5289
Shou-Li LiState Key Laboratory of Grassland Agro-ecosystems, Center for Grassland Microbiome, and College of Pastoral, Agriculture Science and Technology, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, 73000, People's Republic of China.ORCID 0000-0001-8536-8194
Willem G van PanhuisDepartment of Epidemiology, Graduate School of Public Health, University of Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh, PA 15260.
Cecile ViboudFogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD 20892.
Ricardo AguásNuffield Department of Medicine, Big Data Institute, Li Ka Shing Centre for Health Information and Discovery, University of Oxford, Oxford OX3 7LF, United Kingdom.ORCID 0000-0002-6507-6597
Artur A BelovOffice of Biostatistics and Pharmacovigilance, Center for Biologics Evaluation and Research, Food and Drug Administration, Silver Spring, MD 20993.
Sanjana H BhargavaDepartment of Biology, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL 32611.ORCID 0000-0003-4655-1804
Sean M CavanyDepartment of Biological Sciences, University of Notre Dame, Notre Dame, IN 46556.ORCID 0000-0002-2559-797X
Joshua C ChangEpidemiology and Biostatistics Section, Rehabilitation Medicine, Clinical Center, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD 20892.ORCID 0000-0001-9690-9179
Cynthia ChenDepartment of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195.ORCID 0000-0002-1110-8610
Jinghui ChenDepartment of Computer Science, University of California, Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA 90095.
Shi ChenDepartment of Public Health Sciences, University of North Carolina at Charlotte, Charlotte, NC 28223.ORCID 0000-0002-2316-111X
YangQuan ChenMechatronics, Embedded Systems and Automation Laboratory, School of Engineering, University of California, Merced, CA 95343.ORCID 0000-0002-7422-5988
Lauren M ChildsDepartment of Mathematics, Virginia Tech, Blacksburg, VA 24061.ORCID 0000-0003-3904-3895
Carson C ChowMathematical Biology Section, Laboratory of Biological Modeling, National Institute of Diabetes and Digestive and Kidney Diseases, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD 20892.ORCID 0000-0003-1463-9553
Isabel CrookerLos Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM 87545.
Sara Y Del ValleLos Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM 87545.ORCID 0000-0002-0159-1952
Guido EspañaDepartment of Biological Sciences, University of Notre Dame, Notre Dame, IN 46556.ORCID 0000-0002-9915-8056
Geoffrey FairchildLos Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM 87545.ORCID 0000-0001-5500-8120
Richard C GerkinSchool of Life Sciences, Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ 85287.ORCID 0000-0002-2940-3378
Timothy C GermannLos Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM 87545.ORCID 0000-0002-6813-238X
Quanquan GuDepartment of Computer Science, University of California, Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA 90095.ORCID 0000-0001-9830-793X
Xiangyang GuanDepartment of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195.ORCID 0000-0002-4821-6551
Lihong GuoSchool of Mathematics, Jilin University, Changchun, Jilin 130012, People's Republic of China.ORCID 0000-0003-4804-4005
Gregory R HartInstitute for Disease Modeling, Global Health Division, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Seattle, WA 98109.
Thomas J HladishDepartment of Biology, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL 32611.ORCID 0000-0003-1819-6235
Nathaniel HupertDepartment of Population Health Sciences, Division of Epidemiology, Weill Cornell Medicine, Cornell University, New York, NY 10065.ORCID 0000-0002-7590-3680
Daniel JaniesComputational Intelligence to Predict Health and Environmental Risks, University of North Carolina at Charlotte, Charlotte, NC 28223.
Cliff C KerrInstitute for Disease Modeling, Global Health Division, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Seattle, WA 98109.ORCID 0000-0003-2517-2354
Daniel J KleinInstitute for Disease Modeling, Global Health Division, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Seattle, WA 98109.
Eili Y KleinDepartment of Emergency Medicine, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD 21209.ORCID 0000-0002-1304-5289
Gary LinDepartment of Emergency Medicine, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD 21209.ORCID 0000-0002-2269-1135
Carrie ManoreLos Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM 87545.
Lauren Ancel MeyersDepartment of Integrative Biology, The University of Texas at Austin, Austin, TX 78712.ORCID 0000-0002-5828-8874
John E MittlerDepartment of Microbiology, School of Medicine, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195.ORCID 0000-0002-2638-2700
Kunpeng MuLaboratory for the Modeling of Biological and Socio-technical Systems, Network Science Institute, Northeastern University, Boston, MA 02115.
Rafael C NúñezInstitute for Disease Modeling, Global Health Division, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Seattle, WA 98109.
Rachel J OidtmanDepartment of Biological Sciences, University of Notre Dame, Notre Dame, IN 46556.ORCID 0000-0003-1773-9533
Remy PascoOperations Research and Industrial Engineering, The University of Texas at Austin, Austin, TX 78712.ORCID 0000-0002-9321-6876
Ana Pastore Y PionttiLaboratory for the Modeling of Biological and Socio-technical Systems, Network Science Institute, Northeastern University, Boston, MA 02115.
Rajib PaulDepartment of Public Health Sciences, University of North Carolina at Charlotte, Charlotte, NC 28223.
Carl A B PearsonDepartment of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Faculty of Epidemiology and Population Health, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London WC1E 7HT, United Kingdom.ORCID 0000-0003-0701-7860
Dianela R PerdomoDepartment of Biology, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL 32611.ORCID 0000-0001-5502-5238
T Alex PerkinsDepartment of Biological Sciences, University of Notre Dame, Notre Dame, IN 46556.ORCID 0000-0002-7518-4014
Kelly PierceTexas Advanced Computing Center, The University of Texas at Austin, Austin, TX 78712.ORCID 0000-0002-6513-8305
Alexander N PillaiDepartment of Biology, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL 32611.ORCID 0000-0002-3342-9685
Rosalyn Cherie RaelLos Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM 87545.ORCID 0000-0003-0172-4716
Katherine RosenfeldInstitute for Disease Modeling, Global Health Division, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Seattle, WA 98109.ORCID 0000-0001-8902-9990
Chrysm Watson RossLos Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM 87545.ORCID 0000-0002-5989-3830
Julie A SpencerLos Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM 87545.ORCID 0000-0001-8756-6987
Arlin B StoltzfusNational Institute of Standards and Technology, Gaithersburg, MD 20899.
Kok Ben TohSchool of Natural Resources and Environment, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL 32611.
Shashaank VattikutiMathematical Biology Section, Laboratory of Biological Modeling, National Institute of Diabetes and Digestive and Kidney Diseases, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD 20892.ORCID 0000-0002-2109-3512
Alessandro VespignaniLaboratory for the Modeling of Biological and Socio-technical Systems, Network Science Institute, Northeastern University, Boston, MA 02115.ORCID 0000-0003-3419-4205
Lingxiao WangDepartment of Computer Science, University of California, Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA 90095.
Lisa J WhiteNuffield Department of Medicine, Big Data Institute, Li Ka Shing Centre for Health Information and Discovery, University of Oxford, Oxford OX3 7LF, United Kingdom.ORCID 0000-0002-6523-185X
Pan XuDepartment of Computer Science, University of California, Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA 90095.ORCID 0000-0002-2559-8622
Yupeng YangOne Health Trust, Washington, DC 20015.
Osman N YogurtcuOffice of Biostatistics and Pharmacovigilance, Center for Biologics Evaluation and Research, Food and Drug Administration, Silver Spring, MD 20993.ORCID 0000-0003-4987-3753
Weitong ZhangDepartment of Computer Science, University of California, Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA 90095.
Yanting ZhaoThe 28th Research Institute of China Technology Group Corporation, Nanjing, Jiangsu 210023, People's Republic of China.
Difan ZouDepartment of Computer Science, University of California, Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA 90095.
Matthew J FerrariDepartment of Biology, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA 16802.
David PannellSchool of Agriculture and Environment, University of Western Australia, Perth, WA 6009, Australia.ORCID 0000-0001-5420-9908
Michael J TildesleyZeeman Institute for Systems Biology and Infectious Disease Epidemiology Research, School of Life Sciences and Mathematics Institute, University of Warwick, Coventry, CV4 7AL, United Kingdom.
Jack SeifarthDepartment of Biology, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA 16802.ORCID 0000-0002-7261-7689
Elyse JohnsonDepartment of Biology, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA 16802.
Matthew BiggerstaffCenters for Disease Control and Prevention COVID-19 Response, Atlanta, GA 30329.ORCID 0000-0001-5108-8311
Michael A JohanssonCenters for Disease Control and Prevention COVID-19 Response, Atlanta, GA 30329.ORCID 0000-0002-5090-7722
Rachel B SlaytonCenters for Disease Control and Prevention COVID-19 Response, Atlanta, GA 30329.ORCID 0000-0003-4699-8040
John D LevanderDepartment of Biomedical Informatics, School of Medicine, University of Pittsburgh, PA 15260.ORCID 0000-0002-4475-896X
Jeff StazerDepartment of Biomedical Informatics, School of Medicine, University of Pittsburgh, PA 15260.
Jessica KerrDepartment of Biomedical Informatics, School of Medicine, University of Pittsburgh, PA 15260.
Michael C RungeU.S. Geological Survey, Eastern Ecological Science Center, Laurel, MD 20708.ORCID 0000-0002-8081-536X
Funding
MIDAS Coordination CenterU24GM132013 · NIGMS · UNIVERSITY OF PITTSBURGH AT PITTSBURGH · PI HOCHHEISER, HARRY S · 2019 to 2023
$8.1MModeling and data analysis of obesity, insulin resistance, and diabetesZIADK013022 · NIDDK · NATIONAL INSTITUTE OF DIABETES AND DIGESTIVE AND KIDNEY DISEASES · PI CHOW, CARSON · 2009 to 2025
$2.8MNIGMS NIH HHS U24 GM132013
Abstract
Policymakers must make management decisions despite incomplete knowledge and conflicting model projections. Little guidance exists for the rapid, representative, and unbiased collection of policy-relevant scientific input from independent modeling teams. Integrating approaches from decision analysis, expert judgment, and model aggregation, we convened multiple modeling teams to evaluate COVID-19 reopening strategies for a mid-sized United States county early in the pandemic. Projections from seventeen distinct models were inconsistent in magnitude but highly consistent in ranking interventions. The 6-mo-ahead aggregate projections were well in line with observed outbreaks in mid-sized US counties. The aggregate results showed that up to half the population could be infected with full workplace reopening, while workplace restrictions reduced median cumulative infections by 82%. Rankings of interventions were consistent across public health objectives, but there was a strong trade-off between public health outcomes and duration of workplace closures, and no win-win intermediate reopening strategies were identified. Between-model variation was high; the aggregate results thus provide valuable risk quantification for decision making. This approach can be applied to the evaluation of management interventions in any setting where models are used to inform decision making. This case study demonstrated the utility of our approach and was one of several multimodel efforts that laid the groundwork for the COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub, which has provided multiple rounds of real-time scenario projections for situational awareness and decision making to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention since December 2020.
Indexed as
COVID-19Disease OutbreaksHumansPandemicsPublic HealthUncertaintycognitive biasesdecision theorymulti-model aggregation
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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.