Evidence map›Paper›PMID 37081811›Full record

ReviewHealth economics2023

Guidance on the use of complex systems models for economic evaluations of public health interventions.

Penny R Breeze, Hazel Squires, Kate Ennis, Petra Meier, Kate Hayes, Nik Lomax, Alan Shiell, Frank Kee, Frank de Vocht, Martin O'Flaherty and 26 more

Abstract readReview
In one paragraph

Review in Health economics, 2023. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 32 papers, 3 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
32citing papers in PubMed, 3 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

32 citing papers in PubMed, 3 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.

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  15. Modeling the Impact of Vaping: What We Need to Know and Which Methods to Use.Nicotine & tobacco research : official journal of the Society for Research on Nicotine and Tobacco · 2025
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

36 authors.

Penny R BreezeSchool of Health and Related Research, University of Sheffield, Sheffield, UK.ORCID 0000-0002-4189-8676
Hazel SquiresSchool of Health and Related Research, University of Sheffield, Sheffield, UK.ORCID 0000-0002-2776-4014
Kate EnnisBritish Medical Journal Technology Appraisal Group, London, UK.
Petra MeierMRC/CSO Social and Public Health Sciences Unit, University of Glasgow, Scotland, UK.
Kate HayesSchool of Health and Related Research, University of Sheffield, Sheffield, UK.
Nik LomaxSchool of Geography, University of Leeds, Leeds, UK.
Alan ShiellDepartment of Public Health, LaTrobe University, Melbourne, Australia.
Frank KeeCentre for Public Health, Queen's University Belfast, Belfast, UK.
Frank de VochtPopulation Health Sciences, Bristol Medical School, University of Bristol, Bristol, UK.
Martin O'FlahertyDepartment of Public Health, Policy and Systems, University of Liverpool, Liverpool, UK.
Nigel GilbertCRESS, University of Surrey, Guildford, UK.
Robin PurshouseDepartment of Automatic Control and Systems Engineering, University of Sheffield, Sheffield, UK.
Stewart RobinsonBusiness School, University of Newcastle, Newcastle, UK.
Peter J DoddSchool of Health and Related Research, University of Sheffield, Sheffield, UK.
Mark StrongSchool of Health and Related Research, University of Sheffield, Sheffield, UK.
Suzy PaisleyLumanity-HEOR, South Yorkshire, Sheffield, UK.
Richard SmithCollege of Medicine and Health, University of Exeter, Exeter, UK.
Andrew BriggsLondon School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK.ORCID 0000-0002-0777-1997
Lion ShahabDepartment of Behavioural Science and Health, UCL, London, UK.ORCID 0000-0003-4033-442X
Jo-An OcchipintiBrain and Mind Centre, University of Sydney, New South Wales, Camperdown, Australia.
Kenny LawsonBrain and Mind Centre, University of Sydney, New South Wales, Camperdown, Australia.
Thomas BayleyUnited Kingdom Health Security Agency, Birmingham, UK.
Robert SmithSchool of Health and Related Research, University of Sheffield, Sheffield, UK.
Jennifer BoydSchool of Health and Related Research, University of Sheffield, Sheffield, UK.
Visakan KadirkamanathanDepartment of Automatic Control and Systems Engineering, University of Sheffield, Sheffield, UK.
Richard CooksonCentre for Health Economics, University of York, Heslington, UK.
Monica Hernandez-AlavaSchool of Health and Related Research, University of Sheffield, Sheffield, UK.ORCID 0000-0003-4474-5883
Christopher H JacksonMRC Biostatistics Unit, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK.
Amanda KarapiciNIHR SPHR, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK.
Franco SassiCentre for Health Economics & Policy Innovation, Imperial College Business School, London, UK.
Peter ScarboroughNuffield Department of Population Health, University of Oxford, Oxfordshire, Oxford, UK.
Uwe SiebertDepartment of Public Health, Health Services Research and Health Technology Assessment, UMIT TIROL - University for Health Sciences and Technology, Hall in Tirol, Tyrol, Austria.
Eric SilvermanMRC/CSO Social and Public Health Sciences Unit, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, UK.
Luke ValeHealth Economics Group, Population Health Sciences Institute, Newcastle University, Newcastle, UK.
Cathal WalshHealth Research Institute and MACSI, University of Limerick, Limerick, Ireland.
Alan BrennanSchool of Health and Related Research, University of Sheffield, Sheffield, UK.

Funding

Calibrated Agent Simulations for Combined Analysis of Drinking Etiologies (CASCADE)R01AA024443 · NIAAA · UNIVERSITY OF SHEFFIELD · PI PURSHOUSE, ROBIN · 2016 to 2020
$2.3M
British Heart Foundation FS/15/34/31656Cancer Research UK C1417/A22962Department of Health PD-SPH-2015Medical Research Council MC_UU_00022/1Medical Research Council MRC_MC_UU_00002/11Medical Research Council MR/K023241/1Medical Research Council MR/S037578/2Medical Research Council MR/S037594/1NIAAA NIH HHS R01 AA024443NIH HHS R01 AA024443Wellcome TrustWellcome Trust 203956/Z/16/Z
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

To help health economic modelers respond to demands for greater use of complex systems models in public health. To propose identifiable features of such models and support researchers to plan public health modeling projects using these models. A working group of experts in complex systems modeling and economic evaluation was brought together to develop and jointly write guidance for the use of complex systems models for health economic analysis. The content of workshops was informed by a scoping review. A public health complex systems model for economic evaluation is defined as a quantitative, dynamic, non-linear model that incorporates feedback and interactions among model elements, in order to capture emergent outcomes and estimate health, economic and potentially other consequences to inform public policies. The guidance covers: when complex systems modeling is needed; principles for designing a complex systems model; and how to choose an appropriate modeling technique. This paper provides a definition to identify and characterize complex systems models for economic evaluations and proposes guidance on key aspects of the process for health economics analysis. This document will support the development of complex systems models, with impact on public health systems policy and decision making.

Indexed as

Public HealthPublic PolicyCost-Benefit AnalysisEconomics, MedicalHumanscomplex systemseconomic modelingpublic health

Identifiers

PMID37081811
PMCPMC10947434

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.