ArticleBMC infectious diseases2023
Predicting norovirus and rotavirus resurgence in the United States following the COVID-19 pandemic: a mathematical modelling study.
Article in BMC infectious diseases, 2023. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 18 papers, 2 of them syntheses that pooled it.
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Who cites it
18 citing papers in PubMed, 2 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.
- Relevance of social contact definitions for use in infectious disease transmission modeling: a systematic review and recommendations.BMC infectious diseases · 2026Pooled it
- Disease burden of norovirus-associated diarrhea among children under 5 years old in China: a meta-analysis.BMC infectious diseases · 2025Pooled it
- Post-pandemic rebound of rotavirus and adenovirus in pediatric gastroenteritis: a 6-year antigen-based surveillance study from Turkey.Wiener medizinische Wochenschrift (1946) · 2026Article
- Predicting the burden of co-infections in seasonally driven dynamics of pediatric rotavirus and norovirus.Infectious Disease Modelling · 2026Article
- Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Vaccine-Preventable Diseases in Mexico: A Time Series Analysis (2014-2024).Epidemiologia (Basel, Switzerland) · 2026Article
- A report for the fifth International Workshop on Rotavirus and Norovirus in China.Human vaccines & immunotherapeutics · 2025Article
- Delayed Emergence of Norovirus GII.17 in Finland: Foodborne Outbreaks Reported During the 2024/25 Season.Viruses · 2025Article
- Wastewater concentrations of rotavirus RNA are associated with infection and vaccination metrics in the USA.Npj viruses · 2025Article
- Global Impact of COVID-19 Pandemic on Gastrointestinal Infections: A Scoping Review.Foodborne pathogens and disease · 2025Article
- Rotavirus Genotype Dynamics and the Emergence of G3P[8] in Thailand Following Nationwide Vaccine Implementation.International journal of molecular sciences · 2025Article
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- Article
- Driving forces of continuing evolution of rotaviruses.World journal of virology · 2024Review
- Molecular evolutionary analysis of novel NSP4 mono-reassortant G1P[8]-E2 rotavirus strains that caused a discontinuous epidemic in Japan in 2015 and 2018.Frontiers in microbiology · 2024Article
- Lifting COVID-19-associated non-pharmaceutical interventions: potential impact on notifications of infectious diseases transmitted from person to person in 2022 in Bavaria, Germany.Frontiers in public health · 2024Article
- Norovirus Epidemiology and Genotype Circulation during the COVID-19 Pandemic in Brazil, 2019-2022.Pathogens (Basel, Switzerland) · 2023Article
- Rotavirus A during the COVID-19 Pandemic in Brazil, 2020-2022: Emergence of G6P[8] Genotype.Viruses · 2023Article
- Genetic Diversity of Rotaviruses Circulating in Pediatric Patients and Domestic Animals in Thailand.Tropical medicine and infectious disease · 2023Review
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7 authors.
Funding
Abstract
backgroundTo reduce the burden from the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States, federal and state local governments implemented restrictions such as limitations on gatherings, restaurant dining, and travel, and recommended non-pharmaceutical interventions including physical distancing, mask-wearing, surface disinfection, and increased hand hygiene. Resulting behavioral changes impacted other infectious diseases including enteropathogens such as norovirus and rotavirus, which had fairly regular seasonal patterns prior to the COVID-19 pandemic. The study objective was to project future incidence of norovirus and rotavirus gastroenteritis as contacts resumed and other NPIs are relaxed.
methodsWe fitted compartmental mathematical models to pre-pandemic U.S. surveillance data (2012-2019) for norovirus and rotavirus using maximum likelihood estimation. Then, we projected incidence for 2022-2030 under scenarios where the number of contacts a person has per day varies from70%, 80%, 90%, and full resumption (100%) of pre-pandemic levels.
resultsWe found that the population susceptibility to both viruses increased between March 2020 and November 2021. The 70-90% contact resumption scenarios led to lower incidence than observed pre-pandemic for both viruses. However, we found a greater than two-fold increase in community incidence relative to the pre-pandemic period under the 100% contact scenarios for both viruses. With rotavirus, for which population immunity is driven partially by vaccination, patterns settled into a new steady state quickly in 2022 under the 70-90% scenarios. For norovirus, for which immunity is relatively short-lasting and only acquired through infection, surged under the 100% contact scenario projection.
conclusionsThese results, which quantify the consequences of population susceptibility build-up, can help public health agencies prepare for potential resurgence of enteric viruses.
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