ArticleClinical infectious diseases : an official publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America2023
Changes in Population Immunity Against Infection and Severe Disease From Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 Omicron Variants in the United States Between December 2021 and November 2022.
Article in Clinical infectious diseases : an official publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America, 2023. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 37 papers.
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37 citing papers in PubMed.
- An intranasally administered adenovirus-vectored SARS-CoV-2 vaccine induces robust mucosal secretory IgA.JCI insight · 2024Trial
- mRNA COVID-19 vaccination induces minimal IgA in saliva in the absence of prior clinical or subclinical infection.Vaccine · 2026Article
- Quantifying the spatiotemporal dynamics of the first two epidemic waves of SARS-CoV-2 infections in the United States.PLoS computational biology · 2026Article
- SARS-CoV-2 outbreaks in long-term care facilities during the Omicron era in Québec, Canada.Scientific reports · 2025Article
- Lessons from COVID-19 patient visitation restrictions: six considerations to help develop ethical patient visitor policies.Monash bioethics review · 2025Article
- Prior SARS-CoV-2 infection does not increase heat stress during one hour of exercise in a hot and moderately humid environment.European journal of applied physiology · 2025Article
- Physical, cognitive, and mental health impacts of Omicron reinfection in patients with original SARS-CoV-2 infection: a community-based observational study.BMC medicine · 2025Observational
- Article
- Estimating Population Immunity and Impact of COVID-19 Vaccination in Washington State and Oregon.Open forum infectious diseases · 2025Article
- Integrated Analysis of the 2022 SARS-CoV-2 Omicron Lineage Replacement Dynamics in Connecticut, US.Viruses · 2025Article
- Declining Myocarditis Mortality in the United States and the Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic.Journal of clinical medicine · 2025Article
- Real-time monitoring of excess mortality under a new endemic regime.Euro surveillance : bulletin Europeen sur les maladies transmissibles = European communicable disease bulletin · 2025Article
- Large-Scale Genomic Analysis of SARS-CoV-2 Omicron BA.5 Emergence, United States.Emerging infectious diseases · 2025Article
- Mixed lipopeptide-based mucosal vaccine candidate induces cross-variant immunity and protects against SARS-CoV-2 infection in hamsters.ImmunoHorizons · 2025Article
- Article
- State-space modelling using wastewater virus and epidemiological data to estimate reported COVID-19 cases and the potential infection numbers.Journal of the Royal Society, Interface · 2025Article
- Distinct characteristics of T cell receptor repertoire associated with the SARS-CoV-2 reinfection.Frontiers in immunology · 2025Article
- From Emergence to Evolution: Dynamics of the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron Variant in Florida.Pathogens (Basel, Switzerland) · 2024Article
- Dynamics of anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibodies in the Albanian population: Impact of infection- and vaccine-induced immunity during the COVID-19 pandemic.IJID regions · 2024Article
- Morbidity and Mortality of Hospital-Onset SARS-CoV-2 Infections Due to Omicron Versus Prior Variants : A Propensity-Matched Analysis.Annals of internal medicine · 2024Article
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Abstract
backgroundAlthough a substantial fraction of the US population was infected with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) during December 2021-February 2022, the subsequent evolution of population immunity reflects the competing influences of waning protection over time and acquisition or restoration of immunity through additional infections and vaccinations.
methodsUsing a Bayesian evidence synthesis model of reported coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) data (diagnoses, hospitalizations), vaccinations, and waning patterns for vaccine- and infection-acquired immunity, we estimate population immunity against infection and severe disease from SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variants in the United States, by location (national, state, county) and week.
resultsBy 9 November 2022, 97% (95%-99%) of the US population were estimated to have prior immunological exposure to SARS-CoV-2. Between 1 December 2021 and 9 November 2022, protection against a new Omicron infection rose from 22% (21%-23%) to 63% (51%-75%) nationally, and protection against an Omicron infection leading to severe disease increased from 61% (59%-64%) to 89% (83%-92%). Increasing first booster uptake to 55% in all states (current US coverage: 34%) and second booster uptake to 22% (current US coverage: 11%) would increase protection against infection by 4.5 percentage points (2.4-7.2) and protection against severe disease by 1.1 percentage points (1.0-1.5).
conclusionsEffective protection against SARS-CoV-2 infection and severe disease in November 2022 was substantially higher than in December 2021. Despite this high level of protection, a more transmissible or immune evading (sub)variant, changes in behavior, or ongoing waning of immunity could lead to a new SARS-CoV-2 wave.
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