ArticleTranslational psychiatry2023
Predicting suicide risk in 137,112 people with severe mental illness in Finland: external validation of the Oxford Mental Illness and Suicide tool (OxMIS).
Article in Translational psychiatry, 2023. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 9 papers, 2 of them syntheses that pooled it.
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9 citing papers in PubMed, 2 syntheses or guidelines pooled it, 14 citations in OpenAlex.
- Prediction models for self-harm and suicide: a systematic review and critical appraisal.BMC medicine · 2025Pooled it
- Suicidal risk in patients with aggression in schizophrenia: a systematic review.Frontiers in psychiatry · 2025Pooled it
- External validation, recalibration and updating of the OxSATS risk model for suicide after self-harm in England.BMJ mental health · 2026Article
- Clinical symptoms and risk factors in people with mental disorders: findings from the interRAI emergency screener for psychiatry in Brazil.Frontiers in psychiatry · 2026Article
- Digitalized suicide risk assessment in emergency psychiatry services.Frontiers in psychiatry · 2026Article
- Combining the Risk: The Poly-Environmental Risk Score and Psychotic Symptoms in Adolescents.Schizophrenia bulletin · 2025Article
- Machine learning-based mortality risk assessment in first-episode bipolar disorder: a transdiagnostic external validation study.EClinicalMedicine · 2025Article
- Is it reasonable to exclude other severe mental illnesses and mood stabilizers in the prediction of suicide?Translational psychiatry · 2024Article
- Validation of a youth suicide risk calculator in an adult sample with bipolar disorder.Journal of affective disorders · 2024Article
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6 authors at 3 institutions in 4 countries.
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Abstract
Oxford Mental Illness and Suicide tool (OxMIS) is a standardised, scalable, and transparent instrument for suicide risk assessment in people with severe mental illness (SMI) based on 17 sociodemographic, criminal history, familial, and clinical risk factors. However, alongside most prediction models in psychiatry, external validations are currently lacking. We utilised a Finnish population sample of all persons diagnosed by mental health services with SMI (schizophrenia-spectrum and bipolar disorders) between 1996 and 2017 (n = 137,112). To evaluate the performance of OxMIS, we initially calculated the predicted 12-month suicide risk for each individual by weighting risk factors by effect sizes reported in the original OxMIS prediction model and converted to a probability. This probability was then used to assess the discrimination and calibration of the OxMIS model in this external sample. Within a year of assessment, 1.1% of people with SMI (n = 1475) had died by suicide. The overall discrimination of the tool was good, with an area under the curve of 0.70 (95% confidence interval: 0.69-0.71). The model initially overestimated suicide risks in those with elevated predicted risks of >5% over 12 months (Harrell's E
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