Evidence map›Paper›PMID 37068240›Full record

ArticleProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America2023

Bayesian phylodynamics reveals the transmission dynamics of avian influenza A(H7N9) virus at the human-live bird market interface in China.

Claire Guinat, Hao Tang, Qiqi Yang, Cecilia Valenzuela Agüí, Timothy G Vaughan, Jérémie Scire, Hongjie Yu, Wei Wang, Zhiyuan Chen, Mariette F Ducatez and 1 more

Open access · greenAbstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2023. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 6 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
6citing papers in PubMed
2.6field-weighted citation impact, top 10% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

6 citing papers in PubMed, 12 citations in OpenAlex.

  1. Article
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  5. Pathogens and planetary change.Nature reviews. Biodiversity · 2025
    Article
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

11 authors at 4 institutions in 4 countries.

Claire GuinatDepartment of Biosystems Science and Engineering, ETH Zürich, 4058 Basel, Switzerland.ORCID 0000-0002-8245-9290
Hao TangCentre for Biosecurity and One Health, Harry Butler Institute, Murdoch University, Murdoch, WA 6150, Australia.ORCID 0000-0002-3932-4016
Qiqi YangDepartment of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08544.ORCID 0000-0002-5030-0963
Cecilia Valenzuela AgüíDepartment of Biosystems Science and Engineering, ETH Zürich, 4058 Basel, Switzerland.ORCID 0000-0002-2774-4822
Timothy G VaughanDepartment of Biosystems Science and Engineering, ETH Zürich, 4058 Basel, Switzerland.ORCID 0000-0001-6220-2239
Jérémie ScireDepartment of Biosystems Science and Engineering, ETH Zürich, 4058 Basel, Switzerland.ORCID 0000-0003-0059-645X
Hongjie YuSchool of Public Health, Fudan University, Key Laboratory of Public Health Safety, Ministry of Education, 200032 Shanghai, China.
Wei WangSchool of Public Health, Fudan University, Key Laboratory of Public Health Safety, Ministry of Education, 200032 Shanghai, China.
Zhiyuan ChenSchool of Public Health, Fudan University, Key Laboratory of Public Health Safety, Ministry of Education, 200032 Shanghai, China.
Mariette F DucatezUnit of Host-Pathogens Interactions, University of Toulouse, National Research Institute for Agriculture, Food and the Environment, National Veterinary School of Toulouse, 31300 Toulouse, France.ORCID 0000-0001-9632-5499
Tanja StadlerDepartment of Biosystems Science and Engineering, ETH Zürich, 4058 Basel, Switzerland.ORCID 0000-0001-6431-535X
SIB Swiss Institute of Bioinformatics · CHFudan University · CNMurdoch University · AUPrinceton University · US

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

In 2013 to 2017, avian influenza A(H7N9) virus has caused five severe epidemic waves of human infections in China. The role of live bird markets (LBMs) in the transmission dynamics of H7N9 remains unclear. Using a Bayesian phylodynamic approach, we shed light on past H7N9 transmission events at the human-LBM interface that were not directly observed using case surveillance data-based approaches. Our results reveal concurrent circulation of H7N9 lineages in Yangtze and Pearl River Delta regions, with evidence of local transmission during each wave. Our results indicate that H7N9 circulated in humans and LBMs for weeks to months before being first detected. Our findings support the seasonality of H7N9 transmission and suggest a high number of underreported infections, particularly in LBMs. We provide evidence for differences in virus transmissibility between low and highly pathogenic H7N9. We demonstrate a regional spatial structure for the spread of H7N9 among LBMs, highlighting the importance of further investigating the role of local live poultry trade in virus transmission. Our results provide estimates of avian influenza virus (AIV) transmission at the LBM level, providing a unique opportunity to better prepare surveillance plans at LBMs for response to future AIV epidemics.

Indexed as

Influenza A Virus, H7N9 SubtypeInfluenza, HumanInfluenza in BirdsAnimalsBayes TheoremChinaHumansPoultryavian influenzalive bird marketsPhylodynamicsspill-overtransmission

Identifiers

PMID37068240
PMCPMC10151560
OpenAlexW4366140593

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY-NC-ND
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.