Thermodynamically consistent determination of free energies and rates in kinetic cycle models.

Kinetic and thermodynamic models of biological systems are commonly used to connect microscopic features to system function in a bottom-up multiscale approach. The parameters of such models-free energy differences for equilibrium properties and in general rates for equilibrium and out-of-equilibrium observables-have to be measured by different experiments or calculated from multiple computer simulations. All such parameters necessarily come with uncertainties so that when they are naively combined in a full model of the process of interest, they will generally violate fundamental statistical mechanical equalities, namely detailed balance and an equality of forward/backward rate products in cycles due to T. Hill. If left uncorrected, such models can produce arbitrary outputs that are physically inconsistent. Here we develop a maximum likelihood approach (named WHY IT MATTERS: The increase in computational efficiency and rapid advances in methodology for quantitative free energy and rate calculations has allowed for the construction of increasingly complex thermodynamic or kinetic "bottom-up" models of chemical and biological processes. These multi-scale models serve as a framework for analyzing aspects of cellular function in terms of microscopic, molecular properties and provide an opportunity to connect molecular mechanisms to cellular function. The underlying model parameters-free energy differences or rates-are constrained by thermodynamic identities over cycles of states but these identities are not necessarily obeyed during model construction, thus potentially leading to inconsistent models. We address these inconsistencies through the use of a maximum likelihood approach for free energies and rates to adjust the model parameters in such a way that they are maximally consistent with the input parameters and exactly fulfill the thermodynamic cycle constraints. This approach enables formulation of thermodynamically consistent multi-scale models from simulated or experimental measurements.