Computational Modelling for Managing Pathways to Cartilage Failure.

Over several decades the perception and therefore description of articular cartilage changed substantially. It has transitioned from being described as a relatively inert tissue with limited repair capacity, to a tissue undergoing continuous maintenance and even adaption, through a range of complex regulatory processes. Even from the narrower lens of biomechanics, the engagement with articular cartilage has changed from it being an interesting, slippery material found in the hostile mechanical environment between opposing long bones, to an intriguing example of mechanobiology in action. The progress revealing this complexity, where physics, chemistry, material science and biology are merging, has been described with increasingly sophisticated computational models. Here we describe how these computational models of cartilage as an integrated system can be combined with the approach of structural reliability analysis. That is, causal, deterministic models placed in the framework of the probabilistic approach of structural reliability analysis could be used to understand, predict, and mitigate the risk of cartilage failure or pathology. At the heart of this approach is seeing cartilage overuse and disease processes as a 'material failure', resulting in failure to perform its function, which is largely mechanical. One can then describe pathways to failure, for example, how homeostatic repair processes can be overwhelmed leading to a compromised tissue. To illustrate this 'pathways to failure' approach, we use the interplay between cartilage consolidation and lubrication to analyse the increase in expected wear rates associated with cartilage defects or meniscectomy.