Evidence map›Paper›PMID 37052452›Full record

ArticleThe International journal of eating disorders2023

Development of transdiagnostic clinical risk prediction models for 12-month onset and course of eating disorders among adolescents in the community.

Deborah Mitchison, Shirley B Wang, Tracey Wade, Ann F Haynos, Kay Bussey, Nora Trompeter, Alexandra Lonergan, Jack Tame, Phillipa Hay

Open access · hybridAbstract read
PubMed Full text at PMC Publisher
In one paragraph

Article in The International journal of eating disorders, 2023. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 4 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
4citing papers in PubMed
4.4field-weighted citation impact, top 6% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

4 citing papers in PubMed, 14 citations in OpenAlex.

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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

9 authors at 6 institutions in 2 countries.

Deborah MitchisonEating Disorder and Body Image Network, Translational Health Research Institute, School of Medicine, Western Sydney University, Penrith, New South Wales, Australia.ORCID 0000-0002-6736-7937
Shirley B WangDepartment of Psychology, Harvard University, Cambridge, Massachusetts, USA.ORCID 0000-0002-8583-3014
Tracey WadeFlinders Institute for Mental Health and Wellbeing, Flinders University, Adelaide, South Australia, Australia.ORCID 0000-0003-4402-770X
Ann F HaynosDepartment of Psychology, Virginia Commonwealth University, Richmond, VA, USA.ORCID 0000-0002-2548-1731
Kay BusseyCentre for Emotional Health, School of Psychological Sciences, Macquarie University, North Ryde, New South Wales, Australia.
Nora TrompeterCentre for Emotional Health, School of Psychological Sciences, Macquarie University, North Ryde, New South Wales, Australia.ORCID 0000-0001-5800-8679
Alexandra LonerganCentre for Emotional Health, School of Psychological Sciences, Macquarie University, North Ryde, New South Wales, Australia.ORCID 0000-0002-7203-503X
Jack TameEating Disorder and Body Image Network, Translational Health Research Institute, School of Medicine, Western Sydney University, Penrith, New South Wales, Australia.
Phillipa HayEating Disorder and Body Image Network, Translational Health Research Institute, School of Medicine, Western Sydney University, Penrith, New South Wales, Australia.ORCID 0000-0003-0296-6856
Macquarie University · AUTranslational Research Institute · AUCamden and Campbelltown Hospitals · AUFlinders University · AUHarvard University · USVirginia Commonwealth University · US

Funding

Neural Correlates of Reward and Symptom Expression in Anorexia NervosaK23MH112867 · NIMH · UNIVERSITY OF MINNESOTA · PI HAYNOS, ANN FRANCES · 2017 to 2021
$878k
Mathematical and computational modeling of suicidal thoughts and behaviorsF31MH125495 · NIMH · HARVARD UNIVERSITY · PI WANG, SHIRLEY B · 2021 to 2022
$70k
NIMH NIH HHS F31 MH125495NIMH NIH HHS K23 MH112867
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

objectiveTo develop and internally validate risk prediction models for adolescent onset and persistence of eating disorders.

methodsN = 963 Australian adolescents (11-19 years) in the EveryBODY Study cohort completed online surveys in 2018 and 2019. Models were built to predict 12-month risk of (1) onset, and (2) persistence of a DSM-5 eating disorder.

resultsOnset Model. Of the n = 687 adolescents without an eating disorder at baseline, 16.9% were identified with an eating disorder after 12 months. The prediction model was based on evidence-based risk factors for eating disorder onset available within the dataset (sex, body mass index percentile, strict weight loss dieting, history of bullying, psychological distress, weight/shape concerns). This model showed fair discriminative performance (mean AUC = .75). The most important factors were psychological distress, weight and shape concerns, and female sex. Diagnostic Persistence Model. Of the n = 276 adolescents with an eating disorder at baseline, 74.6% were identified as continuing to meet criteria for an eating disorder after 12 months. The prediction model for diagnostic persistence was based on available evidence-based risk factors for eating disorder persistence (purging, distress, social impairment). This model showed poor discriminative performance (mean AUC = .65). The most important factors were psychological distress and self-induced vomiting for weight control. DISCUSSION: We found preliminary evidence for the utility of a parsimonious model for 12-month onset of an eating disorder among adolescents in the community. Future research should include additional evidence-based risk factors and validate models beyond the original sample. PUBLIC SIGNIFICANCE: This study demonstrated the feasibility of developing parsimonious and accurate models for the prediction of future onset of an eating disorder among adolescents. The most important predictors in this model included psychological distress and weight and shape concerns. This study has laid the ground work for future research to build and test more accurate prediction models in diverse samples, prior to translation into a clinical tool for use in real world settings to aid decisions about referral to early intervention.

Indexed as

Feeding and Eating DisordersAdolescentAustraliaBody Mass IndexFemaleHumansRisk Factorseating disorderillness courseonsetprediction model

Identifiers

PMID37052452
PMCPMC10404110
OpenAlexW4365442891

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.