ArticleEuropean journal of epidemiology2023
Excess death estimates from multiverse analysis in 2009-2021.
Article in European journal of epidemiology, 2023. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 23 papers, 2 of them syntheses that pooled it.
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
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Who cites it
23 citing papers in PubMed, 2 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.
- Excess mortality in Mainland China after the end of the Zero COVID policy: A systematic review.Epidemiology and infection · 2026Pooled it
- Productivity Losses due to Health Problems Arising from COVID-19 Pandemic: A Systematic Review of Population-Level Studies Worldwide.Applied health economics and health policy · 2025Pooled it
- Paid and unpaid productivity losses across 28 European countries due to excess deaths and COVID-19 deaths from 2020 to 2023.The European journal of health economics : HEPAC : health economics in prevention and care · 2026Article
- Article
- Article
- Excess and reduced work absence during COVID-19 in Poland: insights from cause-specific time-series models.Population health metrics · 2025Article
- Post-pandemic excess mortality of COVID-19 in Hong Kong: a retrospective study.The Lancet regional health. Western Pacific · 2025Article
- Marital status and risk of cardiovascular disease - a multi-analyst study in epidemiology.European journal of epidemiology · 2025Article
- Beyond death counts: how COVID-19 affected excess mortality and productive life-years lost across 28 European states, 2020-2023.Frontiers in public health · 2025Article
- Mortality in Frankfurt am Main, Germany, 2020-2023: higher excess mortality during an influenza wave in 2022 than during all COVID-19 waves altogether.GMS hygiene and infection control · 2025Article
- Excess mortality at ages 20-64 from 2020 to 2024: a comparative analysis of 16 European countries.BMJ public health · 2025Article
- Relationship between COVID-19 cases and monthly mortality from all causes, cancer, cardiovascular diseases and diabetes in 16 countries, 2020-21.International journal of epidemiology · 2024Article
- One Question, Many Results—Why Epidemiological Studies Yield Heterogeneous Findings. Part 34 of a Series on Evaluation of Scientific Publications.Deutsches Arzteblatt international · 2024Review
- Impact of COVID-19 on total excess mortality and geographic disparities in Europe, 2020-2023: a spatio-temporal analysis.The Lancet regional health. Europe · 2024Article
- Cause-specific excess mortality in Denmark, Finland, Norway, and Sweden during the COVID-19 pandemic 2020-2022: a study using nationwide population data.European journal of epidemiology · 2024Article
- Meaning and prediction of 'excess mortality': a comparison of Covid-19 and pre-Covid-19 mortality data in 31 Eurostat countries from 1965 to 2021.Biology methods & protocols · 2024Review
- Variability in excess deaths across countries with different vulnerability during 2020-2023.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2023Article
- A comprehensive analysis of all-cause and cause-specific excess deaths in 30 countries during 2020.European journal of epidemiology · 2023Article
- No Excess Total Mortality in Italy in the First Semester of 2023 at All Ages and in the Working Age Population.La Medicina del lavoro · 2023Article
- Excess mortality during the Coronavirus disease pandemic in Korea.BMC public health · 2023Article
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Abstract
Excess death estimates have great value in public health, but they can be sensitive to analytical choices. Here we propose a multiverse analysis approach that considers all possible different time periods for defining the reference baseline and a range of 1 to 4 years for the projected time period for which excess deaths are calculated. We used data from the Human Mortality Database on 33 countries with detailed age-stratified death information on an annual basis during the period 2009-2021. The use of different time periods for reference baseline led to large variability in the absolute magnitude of the exact excess death estimates. However, the relative ranking of different countries compared to others for specific years remained largely unaltered. The relative ranking of different years for the specific country was also largely independent of baseline. Averaging across all possible analyses, distinct time patterns were discerned across different countries. Countries had declines between 2009 and 2019, but the steepness of the decline varied markedly. There were also large differences across countries on whether the COVID-19 pandemic years 2020-2021 resulted in an increase of excess deaths and by how much. Consideration of longer projected time windows resulted in substantial shrinking of the excess deaths in many, but not all countries. Multiverse analysis of excess deaths over long periods of interest can offer an approach that better accounts for the uncertainty in estimating expected mortality patterns, comparative mortality trends across different countries, and the nature of observed mortality peaks.
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