Winter mortality, diversification, and self-sufficiency affect honey bee (Hymenoptera: Apidae) colony profit in Canada: a model of commercial Alberta beekeepers.

Canadian beekeepers faced widespread levels of high honey bee colony mortality over the winter of 2021/2022, with an average winter loss of 45%. To understand the economic impact of winter colony mortality in Canada and the beekeeping management strategies used to mitigate these losses, we develop a profit model of commercial beekeeping operations in Alberta, Canada. Our model shows that for operations engaging in commercial pollination as well as honey production (compared to honey production alone), per colony profit is higher and operations are better able to withstand fluctuations in exogenous variables such as prices and environmental factors affecting productivity including winter mortality rates. The results also suggest that beekeeping operations that replace winter colony losses with splits instead of package bees accrue higher per colony profit than those importing packages to replace losses. Further, operations that produce their own queens to use in their replacement splits, accrue even higher profit. Our results demonstrate that the profitability of beekeeping operations is dependent on several factors including winter mortality rates, colony replacement strategies, and the diversification of revenue sources. Beekeepers who are not as susceptible to price and risk fluctuations in international markets and imported bee risks accrue more consistently positive profits.