ArticleJournal of the National Cancer Institute2023
Estimating human papillomavirus vaccine efficacy from a single-arm trial: proof-of-principle in the Costa Rica Vaccine Trial.
Article in Journal of the National Cancer Institute, 2023. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. It is linked to trial NCT00128661 (A Double-Blind, Controlled, Randomized, Phase III Study of the Efficacy of an HPV16/18 VLP Vaccine in the Prevention of Advanced Cervical Intraepithelial Neoplasia), which is not on this map. Cited by 3 papers.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
A Double-Blind, Controlled, Randomized, Phase III Study of the Efficacy of an HPV16/18 VLP Vaccine in the Prevention of Advanced Cervical Intraepithelial Neoplasia (CIN2, CIN3, Adenocarcinoma In Situ [AIS] and Invasive Cervical Cancer) Associated With HPV 16 or HPV 18 Cervical Infection in Healthy Young Adult Women in Costa Rica.
Who cites it
3 citing papers in PubMed, 4 citations in OpenAlex.
- Affinity Selection of MS2 VLPs as SARS-CoV-2 Vaccine Candidates Targeting Nucleocapsid Protein.Viruses · 2026Article
- Human papillomavirus prophylactic vaccines: update on new vaccine development and implications for single-dose policy.Journal of the National Cancer Institute. Monographs · 2024Review
- Looking Back, Moving Forward: Challenges and Opportunities for Global Cervical Cancer Prevention and Control.Viruses · 2024Review
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
16 authors at 6 institutions in 4 countries.
Funding
Abstract
backgroundThe World Health Organization recommends a 1- or 2-dose human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination schedule for females aged 9 to 20 years. Studies confirming the efficacy of a single dose and vaccine modifications are needed, but randomized controlled trials are costly and face logistical and ethical challenges. We propose a resource-efficient single-arm trial design that uses untargeted and unaffected HPV types as controls.
methodsWe estimated HPV vaccine efficacy (VE) from a single arm by comparing 2 ratios: the ratio of the rate of persistent incident infection with vaccine-targeted HPV 16 and 18 (HPV 16/18) and cross-protected types HPV 31, 33, and 45 (HPV 31/33/45) to vaccine-unaffected types HPV 35, 39, 51, 52, 56, 58, 59, and 66 (HPV 35/39/51/52/56/58/59/66) vs the ratio of prevalence of these types at the time of trial enrollment. We compare VE estimates using only data from the bivalent HPV 16/18 vaccine arm of the Costa Rica Vaccine Trial with published VE estimates that used both the vaccine and control arms.
resultsOur single-arm approach among 3727 women yielded VE estimates against persistent HPV 16/18 infections similar to published 2-arm estimates from the trial (according-to-protocol cohort: 91.0% , 95% CI = 82.9% to 95.3% [single-arm] vs 90.9% , 95% CI = 82.0% to 95.9% [2-arm]; intention-to-treat cohort: 41.7%, 95% CI = 32.4% to 49.8% [single-arm] vs 49.0% , 95% CI = 38.1% to 58.1% [2-arm]). VE estimates were also similar in analytic subgroups (number of doses received; baseline HPV serology status).
conclusionsWe demonstrate that a single-arm design yields valid VE estimates with similar precision to a randomized controlled trial. Single-arm studies can reduce the sample size and costs of future HPV vaccine trials while avoiding concerns related to unvaccinated control groups.
trial registrationClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT00128661.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.