Simulating Hypoxia in a New England Estuary: WASP8 Advanced Eutrophication Module (Narragansett Bay, RI, USA).

Anthropogenic sources of nutrients cause eutrophication in coastal waters. Narraganset Bay (USA), the largest estuary in New England, has large seasonal zones of hypoxia. In response, management strategies have been implemented to reduce nutrient loadings. In this study, a mechanistic, mass balance fate and transport modeling framework was developed and applied to Narragansett Bay to improve our understanding of the processes governing hypoxia. Discrete and continuous observations were used for model comparison and evaluation. Simulations captured the general trends and patterns in dissolved oxygen (DO) with depth and space. Simulations were unable to capture the wide diurnal range of observed continuous DO and phytoplankton concentrations, potentially suggesting the need for improved understanding of processes at this time scale. Mechanistic modelling scenarios were performed to investigate how different sources of nutrients affect DO. Results suggest tributary sources of nitrogen affected upper layers of DO, while sediment oxygen demand and nutrient fluxes affected deeper waters. This work highlights the importance of understanding and simulating the legacy effects of historic nutrient loading to estuary systems to understand the magnitude and timing of long-term recovery due to reductions in nutrient loadings.