Turning up the heat: A conceptual model for understanding the migration and health in the context of global climate change.

Background: The triangular relationship between climate change-related events, patterns of human migration and their implications for health is an important yet understudied issue. To improve understanding of this complex relationship, a comprehensive, interdisciplinary conceptual model will be useful. This paper investigates relationships between these factors and considers their impacts for affected populations globally. Methods: A desk review of key literature was undertaken. An open-ended questionnaire consisting of 11 items was designed focusing on three themes: predicting population migration by understanding key variables, health implications, and suggestions on policy and research. After using purposive sampling we selected nine experts, reflecting diverse regional and professional backgrounds directly related to our research focus area. All responses were thematically analysed and key themes from the survey were synthesised to construct the conceptual model focusing on describing the relationship between global climate change, migration and health implications and a second model focusing on actionable suggestions for organisations working in the field, academia and policymakers. Results: Key themes which constitute our conceptual model included: a description of migrant populations perceived to be at risk; health characteristics associated with different migratory patterns; health implications for both migrants and host populations; the responsibilities of global and local governance actors; and social and structural determinants of health. Less prominent themes were aspects related to slow-onset migratory patterns, voluntary stay, and voluntary migration. Actionable suggestions include an interdisciplinary and innovative approach to study the phenomenon for academicians, preparedness and globalized training and awareness for field organisations and migrant inclusive and climate sensitive approach for policymakers. Conclusion: Contrary to common narratives, participants framed the impacts of climate change-related events on migration patterns and their health implications as non-linear and indirect, comprising many interrelated individual, social, cultural, demographic, geographical, structural, and political determinants. An understanding of these interactions in various contexts is essential for risk reduction and preventative measures. The way forward broadly includes inclusive and equity-based health services, improved and faster administrative systems, less restrictive (im)migration policies, globally trained staff, efficient and accessible research, and improved emergency response capabilities. The focus should be to increase preventative and adaptation measures in the face of any environmental changes and respond efficiently to different phases of migration to aim for better "health for all and promote universal well-being" (WHO) (World Health Organization 1999).