Risk factors and prediction model for inpatient surgical site infection after elective abdominal surgery.

backgroundSurgical site infections (SSIs) are the commonest healthcare-associated infection. In addition to increasing mortality, it also lengthens the hospital stay and raises healthcare expenses. SSIs are challenging to predict, with most models having poor predictability. Therefore, we developed a prediction model for SSI after elective abdominal surgery by identifying risk factors.

aimTo analyse the data on inpatients undergoing elective abdominal surgery to identify risk factors and develop predictive models that will help clinicians assess patients preoperatively.

methodsWe retrospectively analysed the inpatient records of Shaanxi Provincial People's Hospital from January 1, 2018 to January 1, 2021. We included the demographic data of the patients and their haematological test results in our analysis. The attending physicians provided the Nutritional Risk Screening 2002 (NRS 2002) scores. The surgeons and anaesthesiologists manually calculated the National Nosocomial Infections Surveillance (NNIS) scores. Inpatient SSI risk factors were evaluated using univariate analysis and multivariate logistic regression. Nomograms were used in the predictive models. The receiver operating characteristic and area under the curve values were used to measure the specificity and accuracy of the model.

resultsA total of 3018 patients met the inclusion criteria. The surgical sites included the uterus (42.2%), the liver (27.6%), the gastrointestinal tract (19.1%), the appendix (5.9%), the kidney (3.7%), and the groin area (1.4%). SSI occurred in 5% of the patients (

conclusionThe patient's condition and haematological test indicators form the bases of our prediction model. It is a novel, efficient, and highly accurate predictive model for preventing postoperative SSI, thereby improving the prognosis in patients undergoing abdominal surgery.