Evidence map›Paper›PMID 37027474›Full record

ArticleScience advances2023

Model ensembles of ecosystem services fill global certainty and capacity gaps.

Simon Willcock, Danny A P Hooftman, Rachel A Neugarten, Rebecca Chaplin-Kramer, José I Barredo, Thomas Hickler, Georg Kindermann, Amy R Lewis, Mats Lindeskog, Javier Martínez-López and 1 more

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Science advances, 2023. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 2 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
2citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

2 citing papers in PubMed.

  1. Article
  2. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

11 authors.

Simon WillcockNet Zero and Resilient Farming, Rothamsted Research, Harpenden, Hertfordshire AL5 2JQ, UK.ORCID 0000-0001-9534-9114
Danny A P HooftmanLactuca: Environmental Data Analyses and Modelling, Diemen, Netherlands.ORCID 0000-0001-9835-6897
Rachel A NeugartenDepartment of Natural Resources and Environment, Cornell University, 226 Mann Drive, Ithaca, NY 14853, USA.ORCID 0000-0003-0647-0516
Rebecca Chaplin-KramerGlobal Science, Word Wildlife Fund, 131 Steuart Street, San Francisco, CA 94105, USA.ORCID 0000-0002-1539-5231
José I BarredoJoint Research Centre, European Commission, Ispra, Italy.ORCID 0000-0002-1541-456X
Thomas HicklerSenckenberg Biodiversity and Climate Research Centre, Frankfurt, Germany.ORCID 0000-0002-4668-7552
Georg KindermannInternational Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria.ORCID 0000-0003-4297-1318
Amy R LewisSchool of Natural Sciences, Bangor University, Bangor, Gwenydd LL57 2DG, UK.ORCID 0000-0001-5682-4541
Mats LindeskogDepartment of Physical Geography and Ecosystem Science, Lund University, Lund, Sweden.ORCID 0000-0002-7825-1040
Javier Martínez-LópezDepartment of Ecology, University of Granada, Avda. del Mediterráneo s/n, E-18006 Granada, Spain.ORCID 0000-0002-0825-7252
James M BullockUK Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Wallingford OX10 8BB, UK.ORCID 0000-0003-0529-4020

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Sustaining ecosystem services (ES) critical to human well-being is hindered by many practitioners lacking access to ES models ("the capacity gap") or knowledge of the accuracy of available models ("the certainty gap"), especially in the world's poorer regions. We developed ensembles of multiple models at an unprecedented global scale for five ES of high policy relevance. Ensembles were 2 to 14% more accurate than individual models. Ensemble accuracy was not correlated with proxies for research capacity, indicating that accuracy is distributed equitably across the globe and that countries less able to research ES suffer no accuracy penalty. By making these ES ensembles and associated accuracy estimates freely available, we provide globally consistent ES information that can support policy and decision-making in regions with low data availability or low capacity for implementing complex ES models. Thus, we hope to reduce the capacity and certainty gaps impeding local- to global-scale movement toward ES sustainability.

Indexed as

Conservation of Natural ResourcesEcosystemHumansPolicy

Identifiers

PMID37027474
PMCPMC10081842

What OpenQuestion holds

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Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.