ArticleBMJ open diabetes research & care2023
Future number of people with diagnosed type 1 diabetes in Germany until 2040: an analysis based on claims data.
Article in BMJ open diabetes research & care, 2023. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 13 papers.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
13 citing papers in PubMed.
- Incidence and remission of endometriosis in Germany based on prevalence data from 35 million patients from the statutory health insurance.BMC women's health · 2026Article
- Article
- Optimizing Type 1 Diabetes Screening in People With Family History: A German Perspective.Journal of diabetes science and technology · 2025Review
- New drugs and their performance 10 years after approval: a systematic analysis.Naunyn-Schmiedeberg's archives of pharmacology · 2025Article
- Future prevalence of type 2 diabetes in Germany: a projection until 2040 including incidence trends observed during the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic.Frontiers in epidemiology · 2025Article
- Socio-economic inequalities in the association between diabetes and labour force participation in Germany: A repeated cross-sectional study.German medical science : GMS e-journal · 2025Article
- Lifetime prevalence of cancer in Germany between 2010 and 2019: An analysis based on aggregated data.PloS one · 2025Article
- Increasing trend of childhood type 1 diabetes incidence: 20-year observation from Greater Poland Province, Poland.Acta diabetologica · 2024Article
- Projecting the economic burden of type 1 and type 2 diabetes mellitus in Germany from 2010 until 2040.Population health metrics · 2024Article
- Incidence of Parkinson's disease in Germany based on prevalence data from 70 million patients of the statutory health insurance.BMC neurology · 2024Article
- Projected number of people in need for long-term care in Germany until 2050.Frontiers in public health · 2024Article
- Future number of people with diagnosed type 1 diabetes in Germany until 2040: an analysis based on claims data.BMJ open diabetes research & care · 2023Article
- Projected incidence trends of need for long-term care in German men and women from 2011 to 2021.Frontiers in epidemiology · 2023Article
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
4 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
introductionWe aim to project the number of people with diagnosed type 1 diabetes in Germany between 2010 and 2040. RESEARCH DESIGN AND
methodsWe first estimate the age-specific and sex-specific incidence and prevalence of type 1 diabetes in Germany in 2010 using data from 65 million insurees of the German statutory health insurance. Then, we use the illness-death model to project the prevalence of type 1 diabetes until 2040. We alter the incidence and mortality underlying the illness-death model in several scenarios to explore the impact of possible temporal trends on the number of people with type 1 diabetes.
resultsApplying the prevalence from 2010 to the official population projections of Germany's Federal Statistical Office yields a total number of 252 000 people with type 1 diabetes in Germany in 2040 (+1% compared with 2010). Incorporating different annual trends of the incidence and mortality in the projection model results in a future number of people with type 1 diabetes between 292 000 (+18%) and 327 000 (+32%).
conclusionsFor the first time in Germany, we provide estimates for the incidence, prevalence, and number of people with diagnosed type 1 diabetes for the whole German population between 2010 and 2040. The relative increase of the people with type 1 diabetes ranges from 1% to 32% in 2040 compared with 2010. The projected results are mainly influenced by temporal trends in the incidence. Ignoring these trends, that is, applying a constant prevalence to population projections, probably underestimates future chronic disease numbers.
Indexed as
Identifiers
What OpenQuestion holds
Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.