ArticleScientific reports2023
Data driven pathway analysis and forecast of global warming and sea level rise.
Article in Scientific reports, 2023. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 12 papers.
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Who cites it
12 citing papers in PubMed.
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- Linking vector favourable environmental conditions with serological evidence of widespread bluetongue virus exposure in livestock in Ecuador.Scientific reports · 2025Article
- Leveraging synthetic data to improve regional sea level predictions.Scientific reports · 2025Article
- Effects of Production System With or Without Growth-Promoting Technologies on Growth and Blood Expression of (Cyto)Chemokines and Heat Shock and Tight Junction Proteins inVeterinary sciences · 2025Article
- Human-Caused High Direct Mortality in Birds: Unsustainable Trends and Ameliorative Actions.Animals : an open access journal from MDPI · 2024Article
- Numerical Analysis of the Influence of Air Flow Rate on the Development of the Porous Structure of Activated Carbons Prepared from Macadamia Nut Shells.Materials (Basel, Switzerland) · 2024Article
- Senior Health in a Changing Climate: Unique Needs of a Complex Population.Environmental health perspectives · 2024Article
- Optimal decision-making in relieving global high temperature-related disease burden by data-driven simulation.Infectious Disease Modelling · 2024Article
- Comparative analysis of decarbonization of local public transportation: A real case study.Heliyon · 2024Article
- Hyperthermia-induced changes in leukocyte survival and phagocytosis: a comparative study in bovine and buffalo leukocytes.Frontiers in veterinary science · 2023Article
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Authors and funding
9 authors.
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Abstract
Climate change is a critical issue of our time, and its causes, pathways, and forecasts remain a topic of broader discussion. In this paper, we present a novel data driven pathway analysis framework to identify the key processes behind mean global temperature and sea level rise, and to forecast the magnitude of their increase from the present to 2100. Based on historical data and dynamic statistical modeling alone, we have established the causal pathways that connect increasing greenhouse gas emissions to increasing global mean temperature and sea level, with its intermediate links encompassing humidity, sea ice coverage, and glacier mass, but not for sunspot numbers. Our results indicate that if no action is taken to curb anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions, the global average temperature would rise to an estimated 3.28 °C (2.46-4.10 °C) above its pre-industrial level while the global sea level would be an estimated 573 mm (474-671 mm) above its 2021 mean by 2100. However, if countries adhere to the greenhouse gas emission regulations outlined in the 2021 United Nations Conference on Climate Change (COP26), the rise in global temperature would lessen to an average increase of 1.88 °C (1.43-2.33 °C) above its pre-industrial level, albeit still higher than the targeted 1.5 °C, while the sea level increase would reduce to 449 mm (389-509 mm) above its 2021 mean by 2100.
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