ArticleScientific reports2023
Transmission dynamics of seasonal influenza in a remote island population.
Article in Scientific reports, 2023. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 3 papers.
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Who cites it
3 citing papers in PubMed, 6 citations in OpenAlex.
- Preventive effect of Lianhua Qingwen capsule on close contacts of seasonal influenza in residential environments: protocol for a multicenter, randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled study.Journal of thoracic disease · 2025Article
- Phylogenetic Study of Local Patterns Influenza A(H3N2) Virus Transmission in a Semi-Isolated Population in a Remote Island in Japan Between 2011 and 2013.Influenza and other respiratory viruses · 2025Article
- Impact of Viral Co-Detection on the Within-Host Viral Diversity of Influenza Patients.Viruses · 2025Article
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Authors and funding
11 authors at 3 institutions in 2 countries.
Funding
Abstract
Seasonal influenza outbreaks remain an important public health concern, causing large numbers of hospitalizations and deaths among high-risk groups. Understanding the dynamics of individual transmission is crucial to design effective control measures and ultimately reduce the burden caused by influenza outbreaks. In this study, we analyzed surveillance data from Kamigoto Island, Japan, a semi-isolated island population, to identify the drivers of influenza transmission during outbreaks. We used rapid influenza diagnostic test (RDT)-confirmed surveillance data from Kamigoto island, Japan and estimated age-specific influenza relative illness ratios (RIRs) over eight epidemic seasons (2010/11 to 2017/18). We reconstructed the probabilistic transmission trees (i.e., a network of who-infected-whom) using Bayesian inference with Markov-chain Monte Carlo method and then performed a negative binomial regression on the inferred transmission trees to identify the factors associated with onwards transmission risk. Pre-school and school-aged children were most at risk of getting infected with influenza, with RIRs values consistently above one. The maximal RIR values were 5.99 (95% CI 5.23, 6.78) in the 7-12 aged-group and 5.68 (95%CI 4.59, 6.99) in the 4-6 aged-group in 2011/12. The transmission tree reconstruction suggested that the number of imported cases were consistently higher in the most populated and busy districts (Tainoura-go and Arikawa-go) ranged from 10-20 to 30-36 imported cases per season. The number of secondary cases generated by each case were also higher in these districts, which had the highest individual reproduction number (R
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