ArticleProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America2023
Predicting climate change impacts on poikilotherms using physiologically guided species abundance models.
Article in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2023. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 14 papers.
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Who cites it
14 citing papers in PubMed.
- Article
- Dispersal mode and spatial heterogeneity shape the interaction between adaptation and dispersal in multitrophic metacommunities.Scientific reports · 2026Article
- Key drivers of at-vessel mortality in demersal sharks.Conservation biology : the journal of the Society for Conservation Biology · 2026Article
- Challenging 10 misconceptions in conservation physiology.Conservation physiology · 2026Article
- Velocity of Climate Change and the Vulnerability of Mountain Lake Landscapes.Environmental science & technology · 2025Article
- Paleorecords Reveal Biological Mechanisms Crucial for Reliable Species Range Shift Projections Amid Rapid Climate Change.Ecology letters · 2025Article
- Clustered warming tolerances and the nonlinear risks of biodiversity loss on a warming planet.Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences · 2025Article
- Conservation physiology of freshwater fishes: an illustration of pressing questions and implications for management.Conservation physiology · 2025Article
- Greater plasticity in CTmax with increased climate variability among populations of tailed frogs.Proceedings. Biological sciences · 2024Article
- No universal mathematical model for thermal performance curves across traits and taxonomic groups.Nature communications · 2024Article
- Assessing the suitability of a one-time sampling event for close-kin mark-recapture: A caribou case study.Ecology and evolution · 2024Article
- Comparative physiology reveals heat stress disrupts acid-base homeostasis independent of symbiotic state in the model cnidarian Exaiptasia diaphana.The Journal of experimental biology · 2024Article
- Evidence that recent climatic changes have expanded the potential geographical range of the Mediterranean fruit fly.Scientific reports · 2024Review
- Effect of temperature on growth, survival, and chronic stress responses of Arctic Grayling juveniles.Transactions of the American Fisheries Society · 2024Article
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Authors and funding
7 authors.
Funding
Abstract
Poikilothermic animals comprise most species on Earth and are especially sensitive to changes in environmental temperatures. Species conservation in a changing climate relies upon predictions of species responses to future conditions, yet predicting species responses to climate change when temperatures exceed the bounds of observed data is fraught with challenges. We present a physiologically guided abundance (PGA) model that combines observations of species abundance and environmental conditions with laboratory-derived data on the physiological response of poikilotherms to temperature to predict species geographical distributions and abundance in response to climate change. The model incorporates uncertainty in laboratory-derived thermal response curves and provides estimates of thermal habitat suitability and extinction probability based on site-specific conditions. We show that temperature-driven changes in distributions, local extinction, and abundance of cold, cool, and warm-adapted species vary substantially when physiological information is incorporated. Notably, cold-adapted species were predicted by the PGA model to be extirpated in 61% of locations that they currently inhabit, while extirpation was never predicted by a correlative niche model. Failure to account for species-specific physiological constraints could lead to unrealistic predictions under a warming climate, including underestimates of local extirpation for cold-adapted species near the edges of their climate niche space and overoptimistic predictions of warm-adapted species.
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