ArticleBulletin of the World Health Organization2023
WHO cardiovascular disease risk prediction model performance in 10 regions, China.
Article in Bulletin of the World Health Organization, 2023. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 10 papers.
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Who cites it
10 citing papers in PubMed.
- Clinical Application of Traditional Chinese Medicine Nursing Care in Cardiovascular Patients.Anatolian journal of cardiology · 2025Trial
- Molecular mechanisms of iron metabolism and ferroptosis in cardiovascular diseases and intervention strategies targeting natural products (Review).Molecular medicine reports · 2026Review
- Synthetic data Using Population Profiles for cardiOvascular Risk facTors (SUPPORT) in mainland China.Scientific data · 2026Article
- Machine learning and SHAP values for predicting coronary artery disease risk in Xinjiang, China.European journal of medical research · 2026Article
- Nonlinear association of serum uric acid and C-peptide with arterial stiffness in patients with type 2 diabetes: a real-world study.Frontiers in endocrinology · 2026Article
- Risk thresholds for soft versus hard cardiovascular disease outcome models for initiating statin therapy among Chinese adults: a cost-utility analysis.BMC medicine · 2025Article
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- Mediterranean diet for cardiovascular disease: an evidence mapping study.Public health nutrition · 2024Review
- Cardiovascular Risk Prediction Model in Asians: Current Status and Future Direction.JACC. Asia · 2024Article
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19 authors.
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Abstract
Objective: To validate the World Health Organization (WHO) non-laboratory-based cardiovascular disease risk prediction model in regions of China. Methods: We performed an external validation of the WHO model for East Asia using the data set of China Kadoorie Biobank, an ongoing cohort study with 512 725 participants recruited from 10 regions of China from 2004-2008. We also recalculated the recalibration parameters for the WHO model in each region and evaluated the predictive performance of the model before and after recalibration. We assessed discrimination performance by Harrell's C index. Findings: We included 412 225 participants aged 40-79 years. During a median follow-up of 11 years, 58 035 and 41 262 incident cardiovascular disease cases were recorded in women and men, respectively. Harrell's C of the WHO model was 0.682 in women and 0.700 in men but varied among regions. The WHO model underestimated the 10-year cardiovascular disease risk in most regions. After recalibration in each region, discrimination and calibration were both improved in the overall population. Harrell's C increased from 0.674 to 0.749 in women and from 0.698 to 0.753 in men. The ratios of predicted to observed cases before and after recalibration were 0.189 and 1.027 in women and 0.543 and 1.089 in men. Conclusion: The WHO model for East Asia yielded moderate discrimination for cardiovascular disease in the Chinese population and had limited prediction for cardiovascular disease risk in different regions in China. Recalibration for diverse regions greatly improved discrimination and calibration in the overall population.
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