ArticleBMC public health2023
Trends of HIV indicators in Egypt from 1990 to 2021: time-series analysis and forecast toward UNAIDS 90-90-90 targets.
Article in BMC public health, 2023. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. It is linked to trial NCT06852430 (Factors Associated With Advanced HIV Disease and Poor Nutrition Among People Living With HIV), which is not on this map. Cited by 15 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Factors Associated With Advanced HIV Disease and Poor Nutrition Among People Living With HIV: A Hospital-based Study
Who cites it
15 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it, 23 citations in OpenAlex.
- Effect of maternal HIV infection on birth outcomes among HIV positive women in Sub Saharan Africa: a systematic review and meta-analysis.BMC public health · 2025Pooled it
- Awareness, knowledge, and accepting attitudes toward people living with HIV in Egypt: a secondary analysis of a nationally representative sample.AIDS research and therapy · 2026Article
- Phylogenetic Evidence of Local HIV-1 Transmission and Antiretroviral Drug Resistance in the Middle East and North Africa.Viruses · 2026Article
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- Predictors associated with time to default for HIV/AIDS patients under HAART at Debre Tabor Referral Hospital: a Cox regression model.Scientific reports · 2025Article
- Tracking the epidemiological trends of female breast cancer in Saudi Arabia since 1990 and forecasting future statistics using global burden of disease data, time-series analysis.BMC public health · 2024Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
3 authors at 3 institutions in 2 countries.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
backgroundInfection with Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) and the development of acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) pose severe threats to public health across the world. This study aimed to describe and forecast the trend of HIV indicators, including progress towards the 90-90-90 targets in Egypt since 1990.
methodsThe HIV indicators were graphically described, where the X axis is the time in a year and the Y axis is the value of the selected indicator for each year using data retrieved from UNAIDS. We used the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model to forecast different HIV indicators from 2022 to 2024.
resultsSince 1990, HIV prevalence has been < 0.01, the number of people living with HIV (PLHIV) has increased from < 500 to 30,000 with a higher male predominance since 2010, and the number of children living with HIV has increased from < 100 to 1100. The number of pregnant women who needed antiretroviral treatment (ART) to prevent maternofetal HIV transmission increased from < 500 during 2010-2014 to 780 in 2021, the percentage of women who received ART increased from 3% in 2010 to 18% in 2021, the number of children exposed to HIV who did not get infection increased from < 100 in 1990-1991 to 4900 in 2021. The number of AIDS-related deaths increased from < 100 in 1990 to < 1000 in 2021. Based on forecasting, we expect that by 2024 the number of PLHIV will be 39,325(95%CI, 33,236-37,334), 22% (95%CI, 13.0%-32.0%) of pregnant females will have access to ART, 6100(95%CI, 5714-6485) HIV exposed children will not be infected, 77.0%(95% CI 66.0%-86.0%) of the population who knew their HIV status, and 71.0% (95%CI, 61.0%-81.0%) among those who know their HIV status will be on ART.
conclusionHIV is moving forward fast, however, the Egyptian health authority implements different control measures to control its spread.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.