ArticleThe Lancet. Public health2023
Projections of future life expectancy in China up to 2035: a modelling study.
Article in The Lancet. Public health, 2023. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 70 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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Who cites it
70 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.
- A meta-analysis and systematic review based on perioperative management of elderly patients: is ciprofol an alternative to propofol?European journal of clinical pharmacology · 2025Pooled it
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- Cost-effectiveness of newborn screening for phenylketonuria and congenital hypothyroidism in Hubei, China.BMJ open · 2026Article
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- Comparative analysis of multimorbidity prevalence and lifestyle factors among older adults in frigid versus non-frigid zones of China.BMC public health · 2026Article
- Lung cancer mortality trends in China from 2013 to 2021 and projections to 2030.Cancer biology & medicine · 2026Article
- [Analysis of the disease burden of Burkitt lymphoma in China from 1990 to 2021].Zhonghua xue ye xue za zhi = Zhonghua xueyexue zazhi · 2026Article
- Physical exercise and health-related quality of life in mid- to late-adulthood: a multi-group chain-mediation analysis.Frontiers in psychology · 2026Article
- From family support to smart health devices: addressing subjective community healthcare gaps in aging China.Innovation in aging · 2026Article
- Causal association of education attainment with aging and cardiac death: Evidence from Mendelian randomization analysis.Medicine · 2025Article
- The changing epidemiology of syphilis: new strategies for new challenges in China.The Lancet regional health. Western Pacific · 2025Review
- Sex-specific machine learning models for cardiovascular disease risk prediction in adults aged ≥ 80 years: insights from the Chinese longitudinal healthy longevity survey.BMC geriatrics · 2025Article
- Predicting age from binarized human oral microbial data combined with an ensemble of classifiers.mSystems · 2025Article
- Spatiotemporal trajectory of life expectancy and its disparity in China 2000-2030: modelling and prediction.BMC public health · 2025Article
- A simulation study of the impact of population-wide lifestyle modifications on life expectancy in the Chinese population.Nature communications · 2025Article
- G20 stroke burden 1990-2035: trends, projections and precision health insights.Neurological sciences : official journal of the Italian Neurological Society and of the Italian Society of Clinical Neurophysiology · 2025Article
- Sustainable age-friendly cities and communities in China: a scoping review and narrative assessment of national policies.The Lancet regional health. Western Pacific · 2025Review
- Risk prediction of cardiometabolic diseases with depression in the community of Xinjiang production and construction corps.BMC public health · 2025Article
- The burden dynamics of leukemia in China from 1990 to 2021: an epidemiological analysis of trends, risk factors, and projections to 2036.Preventive medicine reports · 2025Article
10 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.
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6 authors.
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No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
backgroundTo plan social and health services, future life expectancy projections are needed. The aim of this study was to forecast the future life expectancy for mainland China and its provinces.
methodsFollowing the same approach as the Global Burden of Disease Study, we used the largest compiled epidemiological and demographic datasets to estimate age-specific mortality and evaluate population data from 1990 to 2019. A total of 21 life expectancy forecasting models were combined by a probabilistic Bayesian model to forecast the life expectancy for mainland China and its provinces in 2035.
findingsThe projected life expectancy at birth in mainland China in 2035 is 81·3 years (95% credible interval 79·2-85·0), and there is a high probability that the national goals of improving life expectancy will be achieved (79 years in 2030, and over 80 years in 2035). At the provincial level, women in Beijing have the highest projected life expectancy in 2035 with an 81% probability of reaching 90 years, followed by Guangdong, Zhejiang, and Shanghai, which all have more than a 50% probability of surpassing 90 years. Men in Shanghai are projected to have the highest life expectancy at birth in 2035, with a 77% probability of life expectancy being over 83 years, the highest provincial life expectancy in mainland China in 2019. The projected gains in life expectancy are mainly derived from older individuals (aged ≥65 years), except those in Xinjiang, Tibet, and Qinghai (for men), in which the main contributions come from younger (0-29 years) or middle-aged (30-64 years) individuals.
interpretationLife expectancy in mainland China and its provinces has a high probability of continuing to increase through to 2035. Adequate policy planning of social and health services will be needed.
fundingChina National Natural Science Foundation and Social Science Fund of Jiangsu Province.
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