ArticleAccident; analysis and prevention2023
Estimation of the completeness of road traffic mortality data in Zambia using a three source capture recapture method.
Article in Accident; analysis and prevention, 2023. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 6 papers.
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Who cites it
6 citing papers in PubMed.
- From Vision to Reality: 40 Years of Advancing Safe Surgical and Anesthesia Care Globally 1986-2025.World journal of surgery · 2026Review
- Status of post-crash response systems and policy indicators in the WHO African region: a cross-sectional descriptive study.BMJ public health · 2026Article
- Are we ready? Emergency unit capacity at selected district level hospitals in Lusaka Province, Zambia: Barriers and facilitators for improving trauma care: a mixed methods approach.PLOS global public health · 2025Article
- Trends in collisions and traffic mortality rates in Mexico City: A comparison of six data sources.PloS one · 2025Article
- Using population register data and capture-recapture models to estimate over-coverage in Sweden.Scientific reports · 2024Article
- Research on Active Safety Situation of Road Passenger Transportation Enterprises: Evaluation, Prediction, and Analysis.Entropy (Basel, Switzerland) · 2024Article
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Authors and funding
4 authors.
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Abstract
backgroundAccurate and reliable data are essential for tracking progress and evaluating the effectiveness of road safety intervention measures. However, in many low- and medium-income countries, good quality data on road traffic crashes are often difficult to obtain. This situation has led to an underestimation of the severity of the problem and distortions in trends when the reporting changes over time. This study estimates the completeness of road traffic crash fatality data in Zambia.
methodsData from the police, hospitals, and the civil registration and vital statistics (CRVS) databases was collected for the period 1st January to 31st December 2020 and analyzed using a three-source capture-recapture technique.
resultsA total of 666 unique records on mortalities as a result of road traffic crashes were collected from the three data sources during the period under review. The capture-recapture technique estimated the completeness of police, hospital, and CRVS databases to be 19%, 11% and 14% respectively. The combination of the three data sets was found to increase completeness to 37%. Based on this completion rate, we estimate that the actual number of people who died as a result of road traffic crashes in Lusaka Province in the year 2020 was approximately 1,786 (95% CI [1,448-2,274]). This corresponds to an estimated mortality rate of around 53 deaths per 100,000 population.
conclusionsThere is no single database contains complete data to provide a comprehensive picture of Lusaka province and by extension the country's road traffic injury burden. This study has shown how capture and recapture method can address this problem. It shows the need for the continuous review of the data collection processes and procedures in order to identify gaps and bottlenecks, improve efficiency, and increase the quality and completeness of road traffic data on injuries and fatalities. Based on the findings of this study, it is recommended that the city of Lusaka province and Zambia as a whole utilize more than one database for official reporting of road traffic fatalities to increase completeness.
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