Evidence map›Paper›PMID 37000395›Full record

ArticleEnvironmental science and pollution research international2023

What is the optimal country for minimum COVID-19 morbidity and mortality rates?

Yuval Arbel, Yifat Arbel, Amichai Kerner, Miryam Kerner

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Environmental science and pollution research international, 2023. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 2 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
2citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

2 citing papers in PubMed.

  1. Article
  2. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

4 authors.

Yuval ArbelSir Harry Solomon School of Economics and Management, Western Galilee College, Derech Hamichlalot, 2412101, Acre, Israel. Yuval.arbel@gmail.com.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0003-4365-6280
Yifat ArbelDepartment of Mathematics, Bar Ilan University, 1 Max and Anna Webb Street, 5290002, Ramat Gan, Israel.
Amichai KernerSchool of Real Estate, Netanya Academic College, 1 University Street, 4223587, Netanya, Israel.
Miryam KernerThe Ruth and Bruce Rapoport Faculty of Medicine, Technion - Israel Institute of Technology, 1 Efron Street, 3525422, Haifa, Israel.

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

The SARS-CoV-2 is a deceptive virus. Despite the remarkable progress in genetic sequencing and subsequent vaccine development, the world continues to grapple with the ominous threats of rapidly appearing SARS-CoV-2 variants. The objective of this manuscript is to rank world countries based on the anticipated scope of COVID-19 morbidity and mortality, measured in terms of prevalence per 1 million persons, from the lowest to the highest. The ranking of 162 countries is based on predictions of empirical models, which include three explanatory variables: hospital beds per thousand persons, population density, and the median age of the country's population. Referring to the COVID-19 scope of morbidity, the lowest likelihood of infection is obtained in Niger and Mali, where the dominant characteristic is the young median age (15.1-16.4 years). Referring to the COVID-19 scope of mortality, the lowest likelihood is obtained in Singapore. For Singapore, the dominant feature is the high population density. The optimal solution is intensive vaccination campaigns in the initial phase of the pandemic, particularly among countries with low GDP per capita. Yet, vaccinations may work only where the personal immune system is healthy and thus respond by creating antibodies to the SARS-CoV2 virus. Referring to populations that lack the natural protection of the healthy immune system and thus cannot be vaccinated (e.g., old people, cancer patients undergoing chemotherapy treatments), a complementary solution might be coordination between countries and the establishment of field hospitals, testing laboratories, isolation of areas, humanitarian aid-in the same manner of treatment in other disasters like earthquakes.

Indexed as

COVID-19AdolescentHumansMorbidityRNA, ViralSARS-CoV-2RNA, ViralCOVID-19MorbidityMortalityPer capita hospital bedsPopulation density

Identifiers

PMID37000395
PMCPMC10063940

What OpenQuestion holds

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Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.