ArticleEuropean economic review2023
Gauging the effects of the German COVID-19 fiscal stimulus package.
Article in European economic review, 2023. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
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Authors and funding
4 authors.
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Abstract
We simulate the fiscal stimulus package set up by the German government to alleviate the costs of the COVID-19 pandemic in a dynamic New Keynesian multi-sector general equilibrium model. We find that, cumulated over 2020-2022, output losses relative to steady state can be reduced by more than 6 PP. On average, welfare costs of the pandemic can be mitigated by 11%, or even by 33% for liquidity-constrained households. The long-run present value multiplier of the package amounts to 0.5. Consumption tax cuts and transfers to households primarily stabilize private consumption, and subsidies prevent firm defaults. The most cost-effective measure is an increase in productivity-enhancing public investment. However, it only fully materializes in the medium to long-term. Relative to the respective pandemic impact, some sectors such as the energy and the manufacturing sector benefit above average from the fiscal package, while the effect for some services sectors turns out to be below average.
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