Ability of Caprini and Padua Risk-Assessment Models to Predict Venous Thromboembolism in a Nationwide Study.

Background: Venous thromboembolism (VTE) is a preventable complication of hospitalization. Risk-stratification is the cornerstone of prevention. The Caprini and Padua are the most commonly used risk-assessment models to quantify VTE risk. Both models perform well in select, high-risk cohorts. While VTE risk-stratification is recommended for all hospital admissions, few studies have evaluated the models in a large, unselected cohort of patients. Methods: We analyzed consecutive first hospital admissions of 1,252,460 unique surgical and non-surgical patients to 1,298 VA facilities nationwide between January 2016 and December 2021. Caprini and Padua scores were generated using the VA's national data repository. We first assessed the ability of the two RAMs to predict VTE within 90 days of admission. In secondary analyses, we evaluated prediction at 30 and 60 days, in surgical versus non-surgical patients, after excluding patients with upper extremity DVT, in patients hospitalized ≥72 hours, after including all-cause mortality in the composite outcome, and after accounting for prophylaxis in the predictive model. We used area under the receiver-operating characteristic curves (AUC) as the metric of prediction. Results: A total of 330,388 (26.4%) surgical and 922,072 (73.6%) non-surgical consecutively hospitalized patients (total n=1,252,460) were analyzed. Caprini scores ranged from 0-28 (median, interquartile range: 4, 3-6); Padua scores ranged from 0-13 (1, 1-3). The RAMs showed good calibration and higher scores were associated with higher VTE rates. VTE developed in 35,557 patients (2.8%) within 90 days of admission. The ability of both models to predict 90-day VTE was low (AUCs: Caprini 0.56 [95% CI 0.56-0.56], Padua 0.59 [0.58-0.59]). Prediction remained low for surgical (Caprini 0.54 [0.53-0.54], Padua 0.56 [0.56-0.57]) and non-surgical patients (Caprini 0.59 [0.58-0.59], Padua 0.59 [0.59-0.60]). There was no clinically meaningful change in predictive performance in patients admitted for ≥72 hours, after excluding upper extremity DVT from the outcome, after including all-cause mortality in the outcome, or after accounting for ongoing VTE prophylaxis. Conclusions: Caprini and Padua risk-assessment model scores have low ability to predict VTE events in a cohort of unselected consecutive hospitalizations. Improved VTE risk-assessment models must be developed before they can be applied to a general hospital population.