Evaluation of the predictive values of collapse and necrotic lesion boundary for osteonecrosis of the femoral head prognosis.

Objective: Osteonecrosis of the femoral head (ONFH) is a disabling and intractable orthopedic disease largely affecting young and middle-aged groups. Current standard of treatment relies on the collapse of femoral head as a predictor for prognosis. However, a wide range of variability in repair potentials is observed in patients with femoral head collapse. Therefore, the present study aimed to evaluate the accuracy of femoral head collapse as a predictor and to propose the necrotic lesion boundary as a novel yet reliable measure for ONFH prognosis. Methods: A retrospective cross-sectional study was conducted at the First Affiliated Hospital of Guangzhou University of Chinese Medicine, 203 hips with ONFH from 134 patients were included. The occurrences and progression of femoral head collapse were recorded. Necrosis lesion boundary was quantified and classified for each case based on anteroposterior view intact ratio (APIR) and the frog-leg view intact ratio (FLIR) as independent variables. Dependent variables were defined as progressive collapse or terminal collapse for Association Research Circulation Osseous (ARCO) stage II and III respectively. Logistic regression analysis, Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve and Kaplan-Meier (K-M) survival analysis was performed and results were interpreted. Results: Out of the 106 hips in ARCO stage II, 31 hips collapsed with further progression, while 75 hips had no collapse or collapse with repair of the necrotic areas. Out of the 97 hips in ARCO stage IIIA, the collapse continued to progress in 58 hips while the necrotic areas were repaired in 39 hips. Logistic regression analysis demonstrated that both APIR and FLIR, were independent risk factors. Further ROC curve analysis indicated that the cutoff values of APIR and FLIR could be considered as indications for evaluating the prognosis of ONFH. Contrary to the traditional view of poor prognosis after femoral head collapse, K-M survival analysis demonstrated a high value of APIR and FLIR for ONFH prognosis. Conclusion: The present study found that the occurrence of collapse is an oversimplified predictor for ONFH prognosis. The collapse of the femoral head in ONFH does not predict a poor prognosis. The necrosis lesion boundary has a high value in predicting ONFH prognosis and informing clinical treatment strategies.