Evidence map›Paper›PMID 36992306›Full record

Observational studyViruses2023

Sustained Low Incidence of Severe and Fatal COVID-19 Following Widespread Infection Induced Immunity after the Omicron (BA.1) Dominant in Gauteng, South Africa: An Observational Study.

Shabir A Madhi, Gaurav Kwatra, Jonathan E Myers, Waasila Jassat, Nisha Dhar, Christian K Mukendi, Lucille Blumberg, Richard Welch, Alane Izu, Portia C Mutevedzi

Abstract readObservational Study
In one paragraph

Observational study in Viruses, 2023. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 5 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
5citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

5 citing papers in PubMed.

  1. Trial
  2. Article
  3. Article
  4. Article
  5. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

10 authors.

Shabir A MadhiSouth African Medical Research Council Vaccines and Infectious Diseases Analytics Research Unit, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg 2193, South Africa.ORCID 0000-0002-7629-0636
Gaurav KwatraSouth African Medical Research Council Vaccines and Infectious Diseases Analytics Research Unit, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg 2193, South Africa.
Jonathan E MyersCentre for Environmental and Occupational Health Research, School of Public Health and Family Medicine, University of Cape Town, Cape Town 7701, South Africa.ORCID 0000-0002-3939-4874
Waasila JassatNational Health Laboratory Services, National Institute for Communicable Diseases, Johannesburg 2193, South Africa.ORCID 0000-0003-4279-3056
Nisha DharSouth African Medical Research Council Vaccines and Infectious Diseases Analytics Research Unit, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg 2193, South Africa.
Christian K MukendiSouth African Medical Research Council Vaccines and Infectious Diseases Analytics Research Unit, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg 2193, South Africa.
Lucille BlumbergNational Health Laboratory Services, National Institute for Communicable Diseases, Johannesburg 2193, South Africa.
Richard WelchNational Health Laboratory Services, National Institute for Communicable Diseases, Johannesburg 2193, South Africa.ORCID 0000-0001-8298-8697
Alane IzuSouth African Medical Research Council Vaccines and Infectious Diseases Analytics Research Unit, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg 2193, South Africa.
Portia C MutevedziSouth African Medical Research Council Vaccines and Infectious Diseases Analytics Research Unit, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg 2193, South Africa.

Funding

Gates Foundation INV-023514
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

We conducted an epidemiologic survey to determine the seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 anti-nucleocapsid (anti-N) and anti-spike (anti-S) protein IgG from 1 March to 11 April 2022 after the BA.1-dominant wave had subsided in South Africa and prior to another wave dominated by the BA.4 and BA.5 (BA.4/BA.5) sub-lineages. We also analysed epidemiologic trends in Gauteng Province for cases, hospitalizations, recorded deaths, and excess deaths were evaluated from the inception of the pandemic through 17 November 2022. Despite only 26.7% (1995/7470) of individuals having received a COVID-19 vaccine, the overall seropositivity for SARS-CoV-2 was 90.9% (95% confidence interval (CI), 90.2 to 91.5) at the end of the BA.1 wave, and 64% (95% CI, 61.8 to 65.9) of individuals were infected during the BA.1-dominant wave. The SARS-CoV-2 infection fatality risk was 16.5-22.3 times lower in the BA.1-dominant wave compared with the pre-BA.1 waves for recorded deaths (0.02% vs. 0.33%) and estimated excess mortality (0.03% vs. 0.67%). Although there are ongoing cases of COVID-19 infections, hospitalization and death, there has not been any meaningful resurgence of COVID-19 since the BA.1-dominant wave despite only 37.8% coverage by at least a single dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Gauteng, South Africa.

Indexed as

COVID-19COVID-19 VaccinesHumansIncidenceSARS-CoV-2Seroepidemiologic StudiesSouth AfricaCOVID-19 VaccinesAfricaCOVID-19immunityinfection fatality risksero-survey

Identifiers

PMID36992306
PMCPMC10054630

What OpenQuestion holds

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LicenceCC BY
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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.