Evidence map›Paper›PMID 36990200›Full record

ArticleInternational journal of infectious diseases : IJID : official publication of the International Society for Infectious Diseases2023

Observed negative vaccine effectiveness could be the canary in the coal mine for biases in observational COVID-19 studies.

Korryn Bodner, Michael A Irvine, Jeffrey C Kwong, Sharmistha Mishra

Abstract read
PubMed Full text at PMC Publisher
In one paragraph

Article in International journal of infectious diseases : IJID : official publication of the International Society for Infectious Diseases, 2023. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 19 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
19citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

19 citing papers in PubMed.

  1. Trial
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  6. Symmetric vaccine efficacy.Biometrics · 2026
    Article
  7. Article
  8. Article
  9. Trends in Testing for SARS-CoV-2 Among Healthcare Workers in a Canadian Cohort Study During the COVID-19 Pandemic, June 2020 to November 2023.The Canadian journal of infectious diseases & medical microbiology = Journal canadien des maladies infectieuses et de la microbiologie medicale · 2025
    Article
  10. Article
  11. Article
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  13. Article
  14. Article
  15. Single-dose Effectiveness of Mpox Vaccine in Quebec, Canada: Test-negative Design With and Without Adjustment for Self-reported Exposure Risk.Clinical infectious diseases : an official publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America · 2024
    Article
  16. Article
  17. Article
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

4 authors.

Korryn BodnerMAP Centre for Urban Health Solutions, St. Michael's Hospital, Unity Health Toronto, Toronto, Canada. Electronic address: k.bodner@mail.utoronto.ca.
Michael A IrvineBritish Columbia Centre for Disease Control, Vancouver, Canada; Health Sciences, Simon Fraser University, Burnaby, Canada.
Jeffrey C KwongPublic Health Ontario, Toronto, Canada; ICES, Toronto, Canada; Epidemiology Division, Dalla Lana School of Public Health, University of Toronto, Toronto, Canada; Clinical Public Health Division, Dalla Lana School of Public Health, University of Toronto, Toronto, Canada; Centre for Vaccine Preventable Diseases, University of Toronto, Toronto, Canada; Department of Family and Community Medicine, University of Toronto, Toronto, Canada; University Health Network, Toronto, Canada.
Sharmistha MishraMAP Centre for Urban Health Solutions, St. Michael's Hospital, Unity Health Toronto, Toronto, Canada; ICES, Toronto, Canada; Epidemiology Division, Dalla Lana School of Public Health, University of Toronto, Toronto, Canada; Institute of Medical Science, University of Toronto, Toronto, Canada; Institute of Health Policy, Management and Evaluation, Dalla Lana School of Public Health, University of Toronto, Toronto, Canada; Department of Medicine, University of Toronto, Toronto, Canada.

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Since the emergence of the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant, multiple observational studies have reported negative vaccine effectiveness (VE) against infection, symptomatic infection, and even severity (hospitalization), potentially leading to an interpretation that vaccines were facilitating infection and disease. However, current observations of negative VE likely stem from the presence of various biases (e.g., exposure differences, testing differences). Although negative VE is more likely to arise when true biological efficacy is generally low and biases are large, positive VE measurements can also be subject to the same mechanisms of bias. In this perspective, we first outline the different mechanisms of bias that could lead to false-negative VE measurements and then discuss their ability to potentially influence other protection measurements. We conclude by discussing the use of suspected false-negative VE measurements as a signal to interrogate the estimates (quantitative bias analysis) and to discuss potential biases when communicating real-world immunity research.

Indexed as

COVID-19BiasHumansSARS-CoV-2Vaccine EfficacyBiasCohort-studiesImmunitySARS-CoV-2Test-negative-design

Identifiers

PMID36990200
PMCPMC10040347

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.