Evidence map›Paper›PMID 36978124›Full record

ArticleHealth and quality of life outcomes2023

Machine learning prognosis model based on patient-reported outcomes for chronic heart failure patients after discharge.

Jing Tian, Jingjing Yan, Gangfei Han, Yutao Du, Xiaojuan Hu, Zixuan He, Qinghua Han, Yanbo Zhang

Open access · goldAbstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Health and quality of life outcomes, 2023. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 10 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
10citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
4.2field-weighted citation impact, top 5% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

10 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it, 19 citations in OpenAlex.

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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

8 authors at 1 institution in 1 country.

Jing TianDepartment of Cardiology, the 1st Hospital of Shanxi Medical University, 85 South Jiefang Road, Taiyuan, Shanxi Province, 030001, China.
Jingjing YanDepartment of Health Statistics, School of Public Health, Shanxi Medical University, 56 South XinJian Road, Taiyuan, Shanxi Province, 030001, China.
Gangfei HanDepartment of Cardiology, the 1st Hospital of Shanxi Medical University, 85 South Jiefang Road, Taiyuan, Shanxi Province, 030001, China.
Yutao DuDepartment of Health Statistics, School of Public Health, Shanxi Medical University, 56 South XinJian Road, Taiyuan, Shanxi Province, 030001, China.
Xiaojuan HuDepartment of Health Statistics, School of Public Health, Shanxi Medical University, 56 South XinJian Road, Taiyuan, Shanxi Province, 030001, China.
Zixuan HeDepartment of Cardiology, the 1st Hospital of Shanxi Medical University, 85 South Jiefang Road, Taiyuan, Shanxi Province, 030001, China.
Qinghua HanDepartment of Cardiology, the 1st Hospital of Shanxi Medical University, 85 South Jiefang Road, Taiyuan, Shanxi Province, 030001, China. syhqh@sohu.com.
Yanbo ZhangShanxi Provincial Key Laboratory of Major Diseases Risk Assessment, 56 South XinJian Road, Taiyuan, Shanxi Province, 030001, China. sxmuzyb@126.com.
Shanxi Medical University · CN

Funding

National Natural Science Foundation of China 82103958National Natural Science Foundation of China 82173631Shanxi Provincial Key Research and Development Project 201805D111006
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundPatient-reported outcomes (PROs) can be obtained outside hospitals and are of great significance for evaluation of patients with chronic heart failure (CHF). The aim of this study was to establish a prediction model using PROs for out-of-hospital patients.

methodsCHF-PRO were collected in 941 patients with CHF from a prospective cohort. Primary endpoints were all-cause mortality, HF hospitalization, and major adverse cardiovascular events (MACEs). To establish prognosis models during the two years follow-up, six machine learning methods were used, including logistic regression, random forest classifier, extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost), light gradient boosting machine, naive bayes, and multilayer perceptron. Models were established in four steps, namely, using general information as predictors, using four domains of CHF-PRO, using both of them and adjusting the parameters. The discrimination and calibration were then estimated. Further analyze were performed for the best model. The top prediction variables were further assessed. The Shapley additive explanations (SHAP) method was used to explain black boxes of the models. Moreover, a self-made web-based risk calculator was established to facilitate the clinical application.

resultsCHF-PRO showed strong prediction value and improved the performance of the models. Among the approaches, XGBoost of the parameter adjustment model had the highest prediction performance with an area under the curve of 0.754 (95% CI: 0.737 to 0.761) for death, 0.718 (95% CI: 0.717 to 0.721) for HF rehospitalization and 0.670 (95% CI: 0.595 to 0.710) for MACEs. The four domains of CHF-PRO, especially the physical domain, showed the most significant impact on the prediction of outcomes.

conclusionCHF-PRO showed strong prediction value in the models. The XGBoost models using variables based on CHF-PRO and the patient's general information provide prognostic assessment for patients with CHF. The self-made web-based risk calculator can be conveniently used to predict the prognosis for patients after discharge. CLINICAL

trial registrationURL: http://www.chictr.org.cn/index.aspx ; Unique identifier: ChiCTR2100043337.

Indexed as

Heart FailurePatient DischargeBayes TheoremChronic DiseaseHumansMachine LearningPatient Reported Outcome MeasuresPrognosisProspective StudiesQuality of LifeChronic heart failureMachine learningPatient-reported outcomePrognosis model

Identifiers

PMID36978124
PMCPMC10053412
OpenAlexW4361225136

What OpenQuestion holds

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LicenceCC BY
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.