ArticleBMC medical research methodology2023
Estimated Covid-19 burden in Spain: ARCH underreported non-stationary time series.
Article in BMC medical research methodology, 2023. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 1 paper.
What it found
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
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Who cites it
1 citing paper in PubMed, 7 citations in OpenAlex.
- An agent based simulation of COVID-19 history in Catalonia using extensive real datasets.Scientific reports · 2024Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
5 authors at 3 institutions in 1 country.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
backgroundThe problem of dealing with misreported data is very common in a wide range of contexts for different reasons. The current situation caused by the Covid-19 worldwide pandemic is a clear example, where the data provided by official sources were not always reliable due to data collection issues and to the high proportion of asymptomatic cases. In this work, a flexible framework is proposed, with the objective of quantifying the severity of misreporting in a time series and reconstructing the most likely evolution of the process.
methodsThe performance of Bayesian Synthetic Likelihood to estimate the parameters of a model based on AutoRegressive Conditional Heteroskedastic time series capable of dealing with misreported information and to reconstruct the most likely evolution of the phenomenon is assessed through a comprehensive simulation study and illustrated by reconstructing the weekly Covid-19 incidence in each Spanish Autonomous Community.
resultsOnly around 51% of the Covid-19 cases in the period 2020/02/23-2022/02/27 were reported in Spain, showing relevant differences in the severity of underreporting across the regions.
conclusionsThe proposed methodology provides public health decision-makers with a valuable tool in order to improve the assessment of a disease evolution under different scenarios.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.