Evidence map›Paper›PMID 36977570›Full record

ArticleTobacco control2024

Changing patterns of cigarette and ENDS transitions in the USA: a multistate transition analysis of youth and adults in the PATH Study in 2015-2017 vs 2017-2019.

Andrew F Brouwer, Jihyoun Jeon, Evelyn Jimenez-Mendoza, Stephanie R Land, Theodore R Holford, Abigail S Friedman, Jamie Tam, Ritesh Mistry, David T Levy, Rafael Meza

Open access · hybridAbstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Tobacco control, 2024. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 20 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
20citing papers in PubMed
3.3field-weighted citation impact, top 7% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

20 citing papers in PubMed, 19 citations in OpenAlex.

  1. Patterns of e-Cigarette Use and Smoking Cessation Outcomes: Secondary Analysis of a Large Randomised Controlled Trial to Inform Clinical Advice.Nicotine & tobacco research : official journal of the Society for Research on Nicotine and Tobacco · 2026
    Trial
  2. Article
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  5. Continuous associations of the brief Wisconsin Inventory of Smoking Dependence Motives with transitions between cigarette and e-cigarette use.Nicotine & tobacco research : official journal of the Society for Research on Nicotine and Tobacco · 2026
    Article
  6. Article
  7. Article
  8. Identifying Latent Classes of Dual Cigarette/ENDS Users Based on Motivations for ENDS Use: Product Substitution Versus Complementary Use.Nicotine & tobacco research : official journal of the Society for Research on Nicotine and Tobacco · 2026
    Article
  9. Urinary Tobacco and Nicotine Exposure Biomarkers as Predictors of Transitions between Cigarette and e-Cigarette Use in the Exhale Longitudinal Cohort Study.Nicotine & tobacco research : official journal of the Society for Research on Nicotine and Tobacco · 2026
    Observational
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  15. Trends and Sociodemographic Differences in Tobacco/Nicotine Transitions Among U.S. Adolescents and Young Adults Using e-cigarettes, 2014-2023.The Journal of adolescent health : official publication of the Society for Adolescent Medicine · 2025
    Article
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

10 authors at 4 institutions in 1 country.

Andrew F BrouwerEpidemiology, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan, USA brouweaf@umich.edu.ORCID 0000-0002-3779-5287
Jihyoun JeonEpidemiology, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan, USA.
Evelyn Jimenez-MendozaEpidemiology, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan, USA.
Stephanie R LandTobacco Control Research Branch, National Cancer Institute Division of Cancer Control and Population Sciences, Rockville, Maryland, USA.
Theodore R HolfordBiostatistics, Yale University School of Public Health, New Haven, Connecticut, USA.
Abigail S FriedmanHealth Management and Policy, Yale University School of Public Health, New Haven, Connecticut, USA.ORCID 0000-0002-2352-8786
Jamie TamHealth Management and Policy, Yale University School of Public Health, New Haven, Connecticut, USA.ORCID 0000-0001-8353-4259
Ritesh MistryHealth Behavior Health Education, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan, USA.ORCID 0000-0003-1514-1466
David T LevyLombardi Comprehensive Cancer Center, Georgetown University, Washington, District of Columbia, USA.ORCID 0000-0001-5280-3612
Rafael MezaEpidemiology, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan, USA.ORCID 0000-0002-1076-5037
University of Michigan · USYale University · USGeorgetown University · USNational Cancer Institute · US

Funding

Research Project 3: Modeling the Impact of Tobacco Control Policies on Polytobacco Use and Associated Health DisparitiesU54CA229974 · NCI · UNIVERSITY OF MICHIGAN AT ANN ARBOR · PI David Mendez Emilien · 2018 to 2026
$39.2M
NCI NIH HHS U54 CA229974
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

introductionIt is unknown how recent changes in the tobacco product marketplace have impacted transitions in cigarette and electronic nicotine delivery system (ENDS) use.

methodsA multistate transition model was applied to 24 242 adults and 12 067 youth in waves 2-4 (2015-2017) and 28 061 adults and 12 538 youth in waves 4 and 5 (2017-2019) of the Population Assessment of Tobacco and Health Study. Transition rates for initiation, cessation and product transitions were estimated in multivariable models, accounting for gender, age group, race/ethnicity and daily versus non-daily product use.

resultsChanges in ENDS initiation/relapse rates depended on age, including among adults. Among youth who had never established tobacco use, the 1-year probability of ENDS initiation increased after 2017 from 1.6% (95% CI 1.4% to 1.8%) to 3.8% (95% CI 3.4% to 4.2%). Persistence of ENDS-only use (ie, 1-year probability of continuing to use ENDS only) increased for youth from 40.7% (95% CI 34.4% to 46.9%) to 65.7% (95% CI 60.5% to 71.1%) and for adults from 57.8% (95% CI 54.4% to 61.3%) to 78.2% (95% CI 76.0% to 80.4%). Persistence of dual use similarly increased for youth from 48.3% (95% CI 37.4% to 59.2%) to 60.9% (95% CI 43.0% to 78.8%) and for adults from 40.1% (95% CI 37.0% to 43.2%) to 63.8% (95% CI 59.6% to 67.6%). Youth and young adults who used both products became more likely to transition to ENDS-only use, but middle-aged and older adults did not.

conclusionsENDS-only and dual use became more persistent. Middle-aged and older adults who used both products became less likely to transition to cigarette-only use but not more likely to discontinue cigarettes. Youth and young adults became more likely to transition to ENDS-only use.

Indexed as

Electronic Nicotine Delivery SystemsTobacco ProductsVapingAdolescentAdultAgedAge FactorsCigarette SmokingFemaleHumansMaleMiddle AgedSmoking CessationUnited StatesYoung AdultDisparitiesElectronic nicotine delivery devicesSurveillance and monitoring

Identifiers

PMID36977570
PMCPMC10533746
OpenAlexW4361218696

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceTDM
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Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.