Evidence map›Paper›PMID 36976633›Full record

ArticleJournal of medical Internet research2023

Machine Learning Approaches for Predicting Psoriatic Arthritis Risk Using Electronic Medical Records: Population-Based Study.

Leon Tsung-Ju Lee, Hsuan-Chia Yang, Phung Anh Nguyen, Muhammad Solihuddin Muhtar, Yu-Chuan Jack Li

Open access · goldAbstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Journal of medical Internet research, 2023. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 12 papers, 2 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
12citing papers in PubMed, 2 pooled it
4.3field-weighted citation impact, top 5% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

12 citing papers in PubMed, 2 syntheses or guidelines pooled it, 25 citations in OpenAlex.

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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

5 authors at 4 institutions in 1 country.

Leon Tsung-Ju LeeGraduate Institute of Biomedical Informatics, Taipei Medical University, Taipei, Taiwan.ORCID 0000-0001-6652-4390
Hsuan-Chia YangGraduate Institute of Biomedical Informatics, Taipei Medical University, Taipei, Taiwan.ORCID 0000-0001-9198-0697
Phung Anh NguyenGraduate Institute of Data Science, Taipei Medical University, Taipei, Taiwan.ORCID 0000-0002-7436-9041
Muhammad Solihuddin MuhtarGraduate Institute of Data Science, Taipei Medical University, Taipei, Taiwan.ORCID 0000-0003-0973-3967
Yu-Chuan Jack LiGraduate Institute of Biomedical Informatics, Taipei Medical University, Taipei, Taiwan.ORCID 0000-0001-6497-4232
Taipei Medical University · TWMing Chuan University · TWTaipei Medical University Hospital · TWTaipei Municipal YangMing Hospital · TW

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundPsoriasis (PsO) is a chronic, systemic, immune-mediated disease with multiorgan involvement. Psoriatic arthritis (PsA) is an inflammatory arthritis that is present in 6%-42% of patients with PsO. Approximately 15% of patients with PsO have undiagnosed PsA. Predicting patients with a risk of PsA is crucial for providing them with early examination and treatment that can prevent irreversible disease progression and function loss.

objectiveThe aim of this study was to develop and validate a prediction model for PsA based on chronological large-scale and multidimensional electronic medical records using a machine learning algorithm.

methodsThis case-control study used Taiwan's National Health Insurance Research Database from January 1, 1999, to December 31, 2013. The original data set was split into training and holdout data sets in an 80:20 ratio. A convolutional neural network was used to develop a prediction model. This model used 2.5-year diagnostic and medical records (inpatient and outpatient) with temporal-sequential information to predict the risk of PsA for a given patient within the next 6 months. The model was developed and cross-validated using the training data and was tested using the holdout data. An occlusion sensitivity analysis was performed to identify the important features of the model.

resultsThe prediction model included a total of 443 patients with PsA with earlier diagnosis of PsO and 1772 patients with PsO without PsA for the control group. The 6-month PsA risk prediction model that uses sequential diagnostic and drug prescription information as a temporal phenomic map yielded an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.70 (95% CI 0.559-0.833), a mean sensitivity of 0.80 (SD 0.11), a mean specificity of 0.60 (SD 0.04), and a mean negative predictive value of 0.93 (SD 0.04).

conclusionsThe findings of this study suggest that the risk prediction model can identify patients with PsO at a high risk of PsA. This model may help health care professionals to prioritize treatment for target high-risk populations and prevent irreversible disease progression and functional loss.

Indexed as

Arthritis, PsoriaticPsoriasisCase-Control StudiesDisease ProgressionElectronic Health RecordsHumansMachine Learningconvolutional neural networkdeep learning, machine learningelectronic medical recordsprediction modelpsoriasispsoriatic arthritistemporal phenomic map

Identifiers

PMID36976633
PMCPMC10055385
OpenAlexW4361303509

What OpenQuestion holds

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LicenceCC BY
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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.