Evidence map›Paper›PMID 36975094›Full record

ArticleJournal of the American Heart Association2023

Stage 1 Hypertension and the 10-Year and Lifetime Risk of Cardiovascular Disease: A Prospective Real-World Study.

Xinyi Peng, Cheng Jin, Qirui Song, Shouling Wu, Jun Cai

Open access · goldAbstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Journal of the American Heart Association, 2023. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 24 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
24citing papers in PubMed
7.7field-weighted citation impact, top 2% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

24 citing papers in PubMed, 35 citations in OpenAlex.

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  6. Serum potassium and sodium levels and nutrient intake in population exposed to radiation from the Semipalatinsk nuclear test site.Biometals : an international journal on the role of metal ions in biology, biochemistry, and medicine · 2026
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  9. Updates in the 2025 AHA/ACC Hypertension Guideline.Current hypertension reports · 2026
    Review
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

5 authors at 3 institutions in 1 country.

Xinyi PengHypertension Center, Fuwai Hospital, State Key Laboratory of Cardiovascular Disease of China, National Center for Cardiovascular Diseases of China Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College Beijing China.ORCID 0000-0002-6003-2392
Cheng JinSchool of Public Health and Emergency Management Southern University of Science and Technology Shenzhen China.ORCID 0000-0002-0903-1685
Qirui SongHypertension Center, Fuwai Hospital, State Key Laboratory of Cardiovascular Disease of China, National Center for Cardiovascular Diseases of China Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College Beijing China.
Shouling WuDepartment of Cardiology Kailuan General Hospital Tangshan China.ORCID 0000-0001-7095-6022
Jun CaiHypertension Center, Fuwai Hospital, State Key Laboratory of Cardiovascular Disease of China, National Center for Cardiovascular Diseases of China Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College Beijing China.ORCID 0000-0002-8928-9570
Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences & Peking Union Medical College · CNKailuan General Hospital · CNSouthern University of Science and Technology · CN

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Background The 10-year and lifetime cardiovascular disease risk in the population with stage 1 hypertension and the effects of recovery from and progression of stage 1 hypertension remain undetermined. Methods and Results This prospective cohort study included 96 268 individuals with blood pressure measurements obtained in 2006 and again in 2010. The 10-year cardiovascular disease risk was estimated using the multivariable Cox proportional hazards model, and the lifetime risk was calculated using a modified survival analysis that accounted for the competing risk of death. Stage 1 hypertension was detected in 30.83% of the cohort. The 10-year cardiovascular disease risk was 2.80%, and the lifetime risk was 16.61%. Compared with the normal blood pressure group, the stage 1 hypertension group had a 35% higher 10-year risk (hazard ratio [HR], 1.35 [95% CI, 1.19-1.52]) and a 36% higher lifetime risk (HR, 1.36 [95% CI, 1.25-1.49]). By 2010, 12.57% of the participants with stage 1 hypertension had progressed to stage 2, with a significant 156% increase in 10-year risk (HR, 2.56 [95% CI, 2.11-3.11]) and an increased lifetime risk of 129% (HR, 2.29 [95% CI, 1.89-2.77]). There was no appreciable change in risk in those with stage 1 hypertension whose blood pressure returned to the normal-elevated range. Conclusions Stage 1 hypertension was associated with a significant increase in 10-year and lifetime cardiovascular disease risk. Progression to stage 2 hypertension was associated with a marked increase in lifetime risk. The current guidelines require revision to promote early detection and appropriate management of blood pressure.

Indexed as

Cardiovascular DiseasesHypertensionBlood PressureHumansProportional Hazards ModelsProspective StudiesRisk Factorscardiovascular diseasehypertensionlifetime riskreal‐world studystage 1 hypertension

Identifiers

PMID36975094
PMCPMC10122910
OpenAlexW4361190119

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY-NC-ND
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.