Predicting benzodiazepine prescriptions: A proof-of-concept machine learning approach.

Introduction: Benzodiazepines are the most commonly prescribed psychotropic medications, but they may place users at risk of serious adverse effects. Developing a method to predict benzodiazepine prescriptions could assist in prevention efforts. Methods: The present study applies machine learning methods to de-identified electronic health record data, in order to develop algorithms for predicting benzodiazepine prescription receipt (yes/no) and number of benzodiazepine prescriptions (0, 1, 2+) at a given encounter. Support-vector machine (SVM) and random forest (RF) approaches were applied to outpatient psychiatry, family medicine, and geriatric medicine data from a large academic medical center. The training sample comprised encounters taking place between January 2020 and December 2021 ( Results: For predicting benzodiazepine prescription receipt (yes/no), all models showed good to excellent overall accuracy and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) for both SVM (Accuracy = 0.868-0.883; AUC = 0.864-0.924) and RF (Accuracy = 0.860-0.887; AUC = 0.877-0.953). Overall accuracy was also high for predicting number of benzodiazepine prescriptions (0, 1, 2+) for both SVM (Accuracy = 0.861-0.877) and RF (Accuracy = 0.846-0.878). Discussion: Results suggest SVM and RF algorithms can accurately classify individuals who receive a benzodiazepine prescription and can separate patients by the number of benzodiazepine prescriptions received at a given encounter. If replicated, these predictive models could inform system-level interventions to reduce the public health burden of benzodiazepines.