SynthesisThe Lancet. Respiratory medicine2023
The natural history of untreated pulmonary tuberculosis in adults: a systematic review and meta-analysis.
Synthesis in The Lancet. Respiratory medicine, 2023. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 58 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
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Who cites it
58 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.
- Treatment for radiographically active, sputum culture-negative pulmonary tuberculosis: A systematic review and meta-analysis.PloS one · 2023Pooled it
- Styrene Maleic Acid Lipid Particles Prepared from Mycobacterium tuberculosis Plasma Membrane can Potentially Induce Innate and Adaptive Immune Responses in Healthy Individuals of a Tuberculosis Hyperendemic Region.Current microbiology · 2026Article
- Risk of progression to pulmonary tuberculosis among household contacts with chest radiographic abnormalities in South Africa.medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences · 2026Article
- Centralized molecular testing of community-collected tongue swabs for tuberculosis screening among household contacts: a cross-sectional diagnostic performance, yield, and implementation study.medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences · 2026Article
- Treatment outcomes of individuals with tuberculosis identified from mobile chest X-ray-based active case finding in Pakistan.Public health action · 2026Article
- Prevalence and Predictors of Tuberculosis in Adults and Adolescents With Sputum Trace Ultra Results in 2 High-Burden Clinical Settings.Clinical infectious diseases : an official publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America · 2026Article
- Consensus-based evaluation of RIDASCREENEuropean journal of clinical microbiology & infectious diseases : official publication of the European Society of Clinical Microbiology · 2026Article
- Mycobacterium tuberculosis transmission from tuberculosis patients with and without recognized symptoms: a case-contact study in eastern China.Nature communications · 2026Article
- The role of medical imaging in translational research into early pulmonary tuberculosis.International journal of infectious diseases : IJID : official publication of the International Society for Infectious Diseases · 2026Review
- PET-CT benchmarked detection and 5-year progression of asymptomatic tuberculosis: a longitudinal, prospective cohort study.The Lancet. Respiratory medicine · 2026Article
- The host immune response to Mycobacterium tuberculosis determining protection or disease progression.Nature immunology · 2026Review
- Elimination of senescent cells with senolytic drugs as adjunctive host-directed therapy reduces tuberculosis progression in mice.Nature communications · 2026Article
- Controlled human infection with Mycobacterium tuberculosis: practical considerations for clinical trials.The Lancet. Microbe · 2026Review
- Estimating the number of incorrect tuberculosis diagnoses in low- and middle-income countries.Nature medicine · 2026Article
- Long-term risk of tuberculosis among individuals with Xpert Ultra trace screening results in Uganda: a longitudinal follow-up study.The Lancet. Infectious diseases · 2026Article
- Pharmacological inhibition of USP18 improves antibacterial responses and the intracellular control ofFrontiers in immunology · 2026Article
- Refining research outcomes: Lessons from the setup of an endpoint review committee and radiological review in tuberculosis observational diagnostic studies.PLOS global public health · 2026Article
- Spatiotemporal patterns of tuberculosis in urban slums and urban-rural transition zones: evidence from Tétouan, Morocco, 2019-2023.PLOS global public health · 2026Article
- Factors associated with tuberculosis symptom reporting among persons deprived of liberty in Brazil during active case finding: a cross-sectional study.BMJ public health · 2026Article
- Prognostic value of an abnormal chest X-ray result in predicting the development of tuberculosis.Nature communications · 2025Article
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13 authors.
Funding
Abstract
Stages of tuberculosis disease can be delineated by radiology, microbiology, and symptoms, but transitions between these stages remain unclear. In a systematic review and meta-analysis of studies of individuals with untreated tuberculosis who underwent follow-up (34 cohorts from 24 studies, with a combined sample of 139 063), we aimed to quantify progression and regression across the tuberculosis disease spectrum by extracting summary estimates to align with disease transitions in a conceptual framework of the natural history of tuberculosis. Progression from microbiologically negative to positive disease (based on smear or culture tests) in participants with baseline radiographic evidence of tuberculosis occurred at an annualised rate of 10% (95% CI 6·2-13·3) in those with chest x-rays suggestive of active tuberculosis, and at a rate of 1% (0·3-1·8) in those with chest x-ray changes suggestive of inactive tuberculosis. Reversion from microbiologically positive to undetectable disease in prospective cohorts occurred at an annualised rate of 12% (6·8-18·0). A better understanding of the natural history of pulmonary tuberculosis, including the risk of progression in relation to radiological findings, could improve estimates of the global disease burden and inform the development of clinical guidelines and policies for treatment and prevention.
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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.