ArticleNature communications2023
Transmission modeling to infer tuberculosis incidence prevalence and mortality in settings with generalized HIV epidemics.
Article in Nature communications, 2023. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 11 papers.
What it found
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
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Who cites it
11 citing papers in PubMed.
- Analysis of tuberculosis prevalence surveys in Africa: evidence to change the status quo in case finding.Frontiers in public health · 2026Review
- Phylodynamic analysis reveals disparate transmission dynamics of Mycobacterium tuberculosis complex lineages in Botswana.Scientific reports · 2025Article
- SEIRS model for TB transmission dynamics incorporating the environment and optimal control.BMC infectious diseases · 2025Article
- Improving tuberculosis control: assessing the value of medical masks and case detection-a multi-country study with cost-effectiveness analysis.Royal Society open science · 2024Article
- COVID-19 and Tuberculosis: Mathematical Modeling of Infection Spread Taking into Account Reduced Screening.Diagnostics (Basel, Switzerland) · 2024Article
- Community-based active-case finding for tuberculosis: navigating a complex minefield.BMC global and public health · 2024Review
- Burden of tuberculosis in underserved populations in South Africa: A systematic review and meta-analysis.PLOS global public health · 2024Article
- Airborne transmission risks of tuberculosis and COVID-19 in schools in South Africa, Switzerland, and Tanzania: Modeling of environmental data.PLOS global public health · 2024Article
- Literature Highlights.The international journal of tuberculosis and lung disease : the official journal of the International Union against Tuberculosis and Lung Disease · 2023Article
- Transmission modeling to infer tuberculosis incidence prevalence and mortality in settings with generalized HIV epidemics.Nature communications · 2023Article
- An update on current and novel molecular diagnostics for the diagnosis of invasive fungal infections.Expert review of molecular diagnosticsReview
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
9 authors.
Funding
Abstract
Tuberculosis (TB) killed more people globally than any other single pathogen over the past decade. Where surveillance is weak, estimating TB burden estimates uses modeling. In many African countries, increases in HIV prevalence and antiretroviral therapy have driven dynamic TB epidemics, complicating estimation of burden, trends, and potential intervention impact. We therefore develop a novel age-structured TB transmission model incorporating evolving demographic, HIV and antiretroviral therapy effects, and calibrate to TB prevalence and notification data from 12 African countries. We use Bayesian methods to include uncertainty for all TB model parameters, and estimate age-specific annual risks of TB infection, finding up to 16.0%/year in adults, and the proportion of TB incidence from recent (re)infection, finding a mean across countries of 34%. Rapid reduction of the unacceptably high burden of TB in high HIV prevalence settings will require interventions addressing progression as well as transmission.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.