ArticlePLOS global public health2023
Climatic, land-use and socio-economic factors can predict malaria dynamics at fine spatial scales relevant to local health actors: Evidence from rural Madagascar.
Article in PLOS global public health, 2023. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 13 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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Who cites it
13 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it, 84 citations in OpenAlex.
- A systematic review of sample size estimation accuracy on power in malaria cluster randomised trials measuring epidemiological outcomes.BMC medical research methodology · 2024Pooled it
- Where and why malaria persists in heterogeneous transmission settings: insights from routine health facility data.BMJ global health · 2026Article
- Mapping inequity: spatial clustering of malaria in pregnancy in the Amhara region, Northwest Ethiopia (2018-2024).BMC infectious diseases · 2026Article
- Association of Climate Variables with Plasmodium vivax and Plasmodium falciparum Malaria Cases in Mandoto, Madagascar: A Statistical Modeling Study.The American journal of tropical medicine and hygiene · 2026Article
- Understanding inequities in the malaria landscape of Madagascar: a scoping review of current evidence.Malaria journal · 2026Review
- Spatial distribution and associated factors of public healthcare infrastructure in tourism-oriented environments: evidence from Southwest China in the context of residential tourism.Frontiers in public health · 2026Article
- Public health surveillance of tropical diseases in Madagascar: a scoping review of population burden, intervention strategies, and health system responses.BMC public health · 2025Article
- Monitoring individual rice field flooding dynamics over a large scale to improve mosquito surveillance and control.Malaria journal · 2025Article
- Increasing the resolution of malaria early warning systems for use by local health actors.Malaria journal · 2025Article
- Advancing Early Warning Systems for Malaria: Progress, challenges, and future directions - A scoping review.PLOS global public health · 2025Article
- Higher temperatures and being an ethnic minority reduce mosquito net use in Lao PDR: an analysis of Lao PDR's Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey and Earth observation satellite data.Tropical medicine and health · 2024Article
- Potential impact of climatic factors on malaria in Rwanda between 2012 and 2021: a time-series analysis.Malaria journal · 2024Article
- GIS-based spatiotemporal mapping of malaria prevalence and exploration of environmental inequalities.Parasitology research · 2024Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
18 authors at 5 institutions in 2 countries.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
While much progress has been achieved over the last decades, malaria surveillance and control remain a challenge in countries with limited health care access and resources. High-resolution predictions of malaria incidence using routine surveillance data could represent a powerful tool to health practitioners by targeting malaria control activities where and when they are most needed. Here, we investigate the predictors of spatio-temporal malaria dynamics in rural Madagascar, estimated from facility-based passive surveillance data. Specifically, this study integrates climate, land-use, and representative household survey data to explain and predict malaria dynamics at a high spatial resolution (i.e., by Fokontany, a cluster of villages) relevant to health care practitioners. Combining generalized linear mixed models (GLMM) and path analyses, we found that socio-economic, land use and climatic variables are all important predictors of monthly malaria incidence at fine spatial scales, via both direct and indirect effects. In addition, out-of-sample predictions from our model were able to identify 58% of the Fokontany in the top quintile for malaria incidence and account for 77% of the variation in the Fokontany incidence rank. These results suggest that it is possible to build a predictive framework using environmental and social predictors that can be complementary to standard surveillance systems and help inform control strategies by field actors at local scales.
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Registered trials
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