Evidence map›Paper›PMID 36962736›Full record

ArticlePLOS global public health2022

Resurgence of malaria in Uganda despite sustained indoor residual spraying and repeated long lasting insecticidal net distributions.

Adrienne Epstein, Catherine Maiteki-Sebuguzi, Jane F Namuganga, Joaniter I Nankabirwa, Samuel Gonahasa, Jimmy Opigo, Sarah G Staedke, Damian Rutazaana, Emmanuel Arinaitwe, Moses R Kamya and 5 more

Open access · goldFull text read
In one paragraph

Article in PLOS global public health, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 41 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
41citing papers in PubMed
10.8field-weighted citation impact, top 1% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

41 citing papers in PubMed, 60 citations in OpenAlex.

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  17. Climate Change and Malaria: A Call for Robust Analytics.medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences · 2025
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

15 authors at 6 institutions in 4 countries.

Adrienne EpsteinDepartment of Vector Biology, Liverpool School of Tropical Medicine, Liverpool, United Kingdom.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8253-6102
Catherine Maiteki-SebuguziNational Malaria Control Division, Ministry of Health, Kampala, Uganda.
Jane F NamugangaInfectious Diseases Research Collaboration, Kampala, Uganda.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8452-4247
Joaniter I NankabirwaInfectious Diseases Research Collaboration, Kampala, Uganda.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7818-3845
Samuel GonahasaInfectious Diseases Research Collaboration, Kampala, Uganda.
Jimmy OpigoNational Malaria Control Division, Ministry of Health, Kampala, Uganda.
Sarah G StaedkeLondon School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom.
Damian RutazaanaNational Malaria Control Division, Ministry of Health, Kampala, Uganda.
Emmanuel ArinaitweInfectious Diseases Research Collaboration, Kampala, Uganda.
Moses R KamyaInfectious Diseases Research Collaboration, Kampala, Uganda.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9106-4234
Samir BhattDepartment of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College, St Mary's Hospital, London, United Kingdom.
Isabel Rodríguez-BarraquerDepartment of Medicine, University of California San Francisco, San Francisco, California, United States of America.
Bryan GreenhouseDepartment of Medicine, University of California San Francisco, San Francisco, California, United States of America.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0287-9111
Martin J DonnellyDepartment of Vector Biology, Liverpool School of Tropical Medicine, Liverpool, United Kingdom.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5218-1497
Grant DorseyDepartment of Medicine, University of California San Francisco, San Francisco, California, United States of America.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0740-0317
Infectious Diseases Research Collaboration · UGUniversity of California, San Francisco · USMinistry of Health · UGLiverpool School of Tropical Medicine · GBLondon School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine · GBUniversity of Copenhagen · DK

Funding

Transmission ProjectU19AI089674 · NIAID · UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA, SAN FRANCISCO · PI Joaniter Immaculate Nankabirwa · 2010 to 2026
$29.3M
NIAID NIH HHS U19 AI089674
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Five years of sustained indoor residual spraying (IRS) of insecticide from 2014 to 2019, first using a carbamate followed by an organophosphate, was associated with a marked reduction in the incidence of malaria in five districts of Uganda. We assessed changes in malaria incidence over an additional 21 months, corresponding to a change in IRS formulations using clothianidin with and without deltamethrin. Using enhanced health facility surveillance data, our objectives were to 1) estimate the impact of IRS on monthly malaria case counts at five surveillance sites over a 6.75 year period, and 2) compare monthly case counts at five facilities receiving IRS to ten facilities in neighboring districts not receiving IRS. For both objectives, we specified mixed effects negative binomial regression models with random intercepts for surveillance site adjusting for rainfall, season, care-seeking, and malaria diagnostic. Following the implementation of IRS, cases were 84% lower in years 4-5 (adjusted incidence rate ratio [aIRR] = 0.16, 95% CI 0.12-0.22), 43% lower in year 6 (aIRR = 0.57, 95% CI 0.44-0.74), and 39% higher in the first 9 months of year 7 (aIRR = 1.39, 95% CI 0.97-1.97) compared to pre-IRS levels. Cases were 67% lower in IRS sites than non-IRS sites in year 6 (aIRR = 0.33, 95% CI 0.17-0.63) but 38% higher in the first 9 months of year 7 (aIRR = 1.38, 95% CI 0.90-2.11). We observed a resurgence in malaria to pre-IRS levels despite sustained IRS. The timing of this resurgence corresponded to a change of active ingredient. Further research is needed to determine causality.

Identifiers

PMID36962736
PMCPMC10022262
OpenAlexW4294884339

What OpenQuestion holds

Textfull text, public
LicenceCC BY
measurements read64
identifiers read8
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.