Evidence map›Paper›PMID 36962648›Full record

ArticlePLOS global public health2022

Modelling COVID-19 vaccine breakthrough infections in highly vaccinated Israel-The effects of waning immunity and third vaccination dose.

Anyin Feng, Uri Obolski, Lewi Stone, Daihai He

Open access · goldFull text read
PubMed Full text at PMC Publisher
In one paragraph

Article in PLOS global public health, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 21 papers, 2 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
21citing papers in PubMed, 2 pooled it
2.7field-weighted citation impact, top 8% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

21 citing papers in PubMed, 2 syntheses or guidelines pooled it, 27 citations in OpenAlex.

  1. Pooled it
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  6. Impact of Long-COVID in children: a large cohort study.Child and adolescent psychiatry and mental health · 2024
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  15. Resolving the enigma of Iquitos and Manaus: A modeling analysis of multiple COVID-19 epidemic waves in two Amazonian cities.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2023
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

4 authors at 2 institutions in 3 countries.

Anyin FengDepartment of Applied Mathematics, The Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong, China.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5318-9837
Uri ObolskiSchool of Public Health, Faculty of Medicine, Tel Aviv University, Tel Aviv, Israel.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7594-9745
Lewi StoneMathematical Sciences, School of Science, RMIT University, Melbourne, Australia.
Daihai HeDepartment of Applied Mathematics, The Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong, China.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3253-654X
Hong Kong Polytechnic University · HKTel Aviv University · IL

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

In August 2021, a major wave of the SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant erupted in the highly vaccinated population of Israel. The transmission advantage of the Delta variant enabled it to replace the Alpha variant in approximately two months. The outbreak led to an unexpectedly large proportion of breakthrough infections (BTI)-a phenomenon that received worldwide attention. Most of the Israeli population, especially those aged 60+, received their second dose of the vaccination four months before the invasion of the Delta variant. Hence, either the vaccine induced immunity dropped significantly or the Delta variant possesses immunity escaping abilities, or both. In this work, we model data obtained from the Israeli Ministry of Health, to help understand the epidemiological factors involved in the outbreak. We propose a mathematical model that captures a multitude of factors, including age structure, the time varying vaccine efficacy, time varying transmission rate, BTIs, reduced susceptibility and infectivity of vaccinated individuals, protection duration of the vaccine induced immunity, and the vaccine distribution. We fitted our model to COVID-19 cases among the vaccinated and unvaccinated, for <60 and 60+ age groups, and quantified the transmission rate, the vaccine efficacy over time and the impact of the third dose booster vaccine. The peak transmission rate of the Delta variant was found to be 2.14 times higher than that of the Alpha variant. The two-dose vaccine efficacy against infection dropped significantly from >90% to ~40% over 6 months. We further performed model simulations and quantified counterfactual scenarios examining what would happen if the booster had not been rolled out. We estimated that approximately 4.03 million infective cases (95%CI 3.19, 4.86) were prevented by vaccination overall, and 1.22 million infective cases (95%CI 0.89, 1.62) averted by the booster.

Identifiers

PMID36962648
PMCPMC10021336
OpenAlexW4308653901

What OpenQuestion holds

Textfull text, public
LicenceCC BY
measurements read71
identifiers read7
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.