The impact of IOM recommendations on gestational weight gain among US women: An analysis of birth records during 2011-2019.

The prevailing guidelines of the Institute of Medicine (IOM) of United States on gestational weight gain (GWG) are based on women's prepregnancy body mass index (BMI) categories. Previous research has shown that the guidelines issued in 1990 and revised in 2009 had no effect. We investigate the effectiveness of new guidelines issued in 2009 analyzing the records of all singleton births in the U.S. during 2011-2019 (34.0 million observations). We use the discontinuity in recommended guidelines at the threshold values of BMI categories in a regression discontinuity (RD) research design to investigate the effect of IOM guidelines on GWG. We also use an RD analysis in a difference in difference (DID) framework where we compare the effect on women who had any prenatal care to others who did not receive prenatal care. The naïve RD estimator predicts an effect in the expected direction at the threshold BMI values of 18.5 and 25.0 but not at 30.0. After the DID based correction, the RD analyses show that the GWG, measured in kg, drop at the BMI values of 18.5, 25.0 and 30.0 by 0.189 [CI: 0.341, 0.037], 0.085 [CI: 0.179, -0.009] and 0.200 [CI: 0.328, 0.072] respectively when the midpoint of the recommended range in kg drops by 1.5, 4.5 and 2.25. This implies a responsiveness of 12.6%, 1.9% and 8.9% respectively to changes in guidelines at these BMI values. The findings show that the national guidelines have induced some behavioral changes among US women during their pregnancy resulting in a change in GWG in the expected direction. However, the magnitude of the change has not been large compared to the expectations, implying that the existing mechanisms to implement these guidelines have not been sufficiently strong.