Evidence map›Paper›PMID 36959667›Full record

ArticleInternational journal of mental health systems2023

Bi-stability and critical transitions in mental health care systems: a model-based analysis.

Adam Skinner, Jo-An Occhipinti, Ante Prodan, Yun Ju Christine Song, Ian B Hickie

Open access · goldFull text read
In one paragraph

Article in International journal of mental health systems, 2023. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 6 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
6citing papers in PubMed
2.3field-weighted citation impact, top 12% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

6 citing papers in PubMed, 7 citations in OpenAlex.

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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

5 authors at 2 institutions in 1 country.

Adam SkinnerBrain and Mind Centre, Faculty of Medicine and Health, University of Sydney, Sydney, Australia. adam.skinner@sydney.edu.au.
Jo-An OcchipintiBrain and Mind Centre, Faculty of Medicine and Health, University of Sydney, Sydney, Australia.
Ante ProdanComputer Simulation and Advanced Research Technologies (CSART), Sydney, Australia.
Yun Ju Christine SongBrain and Mind Centre, Faculty of Medicine and Health, University of Sydney, Sydney, Australia.
Ian B HickieBrain and Mind Centre, Faculty of Medicine and Health, University of Sydney, Sydney, Australia.
The University of Sydney · AUWestern Sydney University · AU

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundDelayed initiation and early discontinuation of treatment due to limited availability and accessibility of services may often result in people with mild or moderate mental disorders developing more severe disorders, leading to an increase in demand for specialised care that would be expected to further restrict service availability and accessibility (due to increased waiting times, higher out-of-pocket costs, etc.).

methodsWe developed a simple system dynamics model of the interaction of specialised services capacity and disease progression to examine the impact of service availability and accessibility on the effectiveness and efficiency of mental health care systems.

resultsModel analysis indicates that, under certain conditions, increasing services capacity can precipitate an abrupt, step-like transition from a state of persistently high unmet need for specialised services to an alternative, stable state in which people presenting for care receive immediate and effective treatment. This qualitative shift in services system functioning results from a 'virtuous cycle' in which increasing treatment-dependent recovery among patients with mild to moderate disorders reduces the number of severely ill patients requiring intensive and/or prolonged treatment, effectively 'releasing' services capacity that can be used to further reduce the disease progression rate. We present an empirical case study of tertiary-level child and adolescent mental health services in the Australian state of South Australia demonstrating that the conditions under which such critical transitions can occur apply in real-world services systems.

conclusionsPolicy and planning decisions aimed at increasing specialised services capacity have the potential to dramatically increase the effectiveness and efficiency of mental health care systems, promoting long-term sustainability and resilience in the face of future threats to population mental health (e.g., economic crises, natural disasters, global pandemics).

Indexed as

AustraliaBifurcationDisease progressionMental health servicesNonlinear dynamicsSystem dynamics

Identifiers

PMID36959667
PMCPMC10037813
OpenAlexW4360603035

What OpenQuestion holds

Textfull text, public
LicenceCC BY
measurements read15
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.