ArticleBMC infectious diseases2023
Modelling the impact of combining HIV prevention interventions on HIV dynamics in fishing communities in Uganda.
Article in BMC infectious diseases, 2023. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 6 papers.
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Who cites it
6 citing papers in PubMed, 10 citations in OpenAlex.
- Applying implementation science frameworks to understand why fisherfolk continue or discontinue pre-exposure prophylaxis for HIV prevention in Uganda: a qualitative analysis.BMJ global health · 2025Article
- From criminalization to care: a comparative rights-based policy review of HIV responses in South Asia.Frontiers in public health · 2025Review
- Quality of life of people with human immunodeficiency virus and seroconcordant and serodiscordant partnerships.Revista brasileira de enfermagem · 2025Article
- Article
- Construction and validation of an information portal on combined HIV prevention.Revista latino-americana de enfermagem · 2025Article
- Leaving no one behind: Disability and HIV prevention, knowledge among adults in a population cohort in Uganda.African journal of disability · 2024Article
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Authors and funding
6 authors at 5 institutions in 4 countries.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
backgroundIn countries with mature generalized HIV epidemics such as Uganda, there are still groups of individuals that are disproportionately affected. Among the key populations in Uganda are fishing communities, which make up about 10% of the population. Compared to the general population, HIV prevalence and incidence among individuals living in these communities is high. This high HIV burden has been attributed to several factors including limited access to prevention and treatment services as well as ongoing high-risk sexual behaviour.
methodsWe investigated the impact of combined HIV prevention interventions on HIV transmission dynamics in high-risk fishing communities in Uganda using a deterministic compartmental model. The model was calibrated to seroprevalence data from a census performed in 2014. To account for remaining uncertainty in the calibrated model parameters, 50 000 simulated scenarios were modelled to investigate the impact of combined prevention interventions.
resultsThe projected HIV incidence decreased from 1.87 per 100 PY without intervention scale-up to 0.25 per 100 PY after 15 years (2014-2029) of intervention scale-up. A potential combination achieving this 87% reduction in incidence over 15 years in Ugandan FCs included condom use in about 60% of sexual acts, 23% of susceptible men circumcised, 87% of people living with HIV aware of their status, 75% of those on ART, and about 3% of susceptible individuals on oral PrEP. Uncertainty analysis revealed relative reductions in incidence ranging from 30.9 to 86.8%. Sensitivity analyses suggested that condom use and early ART were the most important interventions.
conclusionReducing HIV incidence, as well as prevalence and AIDS-related mortality, in these high-risk fishing communities in Uganda is attainable over 15 years with a combination prevention package. Our projected intervention coverage levels are well within the national targets set by the Uganda government and enable coming close to reaching the UNAIDS 95-95-95 targets to end AIDS as a public health threat by 2030.
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