Evidence map›Paper›PMID 36948515›Full record

ArticleBMJ (Clinical research ed.)2023

Estimated impact from the withdrawal of primary care financial incentives on selected indicators of quality of care in Scotland: controlled interrupted time series analysis.

Daniel R Morales, Mark Minchin, Evangelos Kontopantelis, Martin Roland, Matt Sutton, Bruce Guthrie

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Article in BMJ (Clinical research ed.), 2023. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 20 papers, 2 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
20citing papers in PubMed, 2 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

20 citing papers in PubMed, 2 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.

  1. Pooled it
  2. Pooled it
  3. Trial
  4. Article
  5. Observational
  6. Article
  7. Financial incentives and information provision for post-pandemic primary care quality recovery: a longitudinal study in Catalonia.The British journal of general practice : the journal of the Royal College of General Practitioners · 2026
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  8. Article
  9. Article
  10. Article
  11. Article
  12. Article
  13. Observational
  14. 'Flattened, fattened, and forgotten': the 'dis-integrated' care of patients prescribed antipsychotics in the UK.The British journal of general practice : the journal of the Royal College of General Practitioners · 2025
    Article
  15. Article
  16. Review
  17. Article
  18. Does shortage of GPs matter? A cross-sectional study of practice population life expectancy.The British journal of general practice : the journal of the Royal College of General Practitioners · 2024
    Article
  19. Article
  20. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

6 authors.

Daniel R MoralesDivision of Population Health and Genomics, University of Dundee, UK.
Mark MinchinNational Institute for Health and Care Excellence, Centre for Guidelines, Manchester, UK.
Evangelos KontopantelisDivision of Informatics, Imaging and Data Sciences, University of Manchester, Manchester, UK.
Martin RolandDepartment of Public Health and Primary Care, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK.
Matt SuttonDivision of Population Health, Health Services Research and Primary Care, University of Manchester, Manchester, UK.
Bruce GuthrieAdvanced Care Research Centre, Usher Institute, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK Bruce.guthrie@ed.ac.uk.ORCID 0000-0003-4191-4880

Funding

Wellcome Trust
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

objectiveTo determine whether the withdrawal of the Quality and Outcomes Framework (QOF) scheme in primary care in Scotland in 2016 had an impact on selected recorded quality of care, compared with England where the scheme continued.

designControlled interrupted time series regression analysis.

settingGeneral practices in Scotland and England.

participants979 practices with 5 599 171 registered patients in Scotland, and 7921 practices with 56 270 628 registered patients in England in 2013-14, decreasing to 864 practices in Scotland and 6873 in England in 2018-19, mainly due to practice mergers.

main outcome measuresChanges in quality of care at one year and three years after withdrawal of QOF financial incentives in Scotland at the end of the 2015-16 financial year for 16 indicators (two complex processes, nine intermediate outcomes, and five treatments) measured annually for financial years from 2013-14 to 2018-19.

resultsA significant decrease in performance was observed for 12 of the 16 quality of care indicators in Scotland one year after QOF was abolished and for 10 of the 16 indicators three years after QOF was abolished, compared with England. At three years, the absolute percentage point difference between Scotland and England was largest for recording (by tick box) of mental health care planning (-40.2 percentage points, 95% confidence interval -45.5 to -35.0) and diabetic foot screening (-22.8, -33.9 to -11.7). Substantial reductions were, however, also observed for intermediate outcomes, including blood pressure control in patients with peripheral arterial disease (-18.5, -22.1 to -14.9), stroke or transient ischaemic attack (-16.6, -20.6 to -12.7), hypertension (-13.7, -19.4 to -7.9), diabetes (-12.7, -15.0 to -12.4), or coronary heart disease (-12.8, -14.9 to -10.8), and for glycated haemoglobin control in people with HbA

conclusionThe abolition of financial incentives in Scotland was associated with reductions in recorded quality of care for most performance indicators. Changes to pay for performance should be carefully designed and implemented to monitor and respond to any reductions in care quality.

Indexed as

Coronary DiseaseMotivationHumansInterrupted Time Series AnalysisPrimary Health CareQuality Indicators, Health CareQuality of Health CareReimbursement, IncentiveScotland

Identifiers

PMID36948515
PMCPMC10031759

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.