A three-step approach for assessing landscape connectivity via simulated dispersal: African wild dog case study.

Context: Dispersal of individuals contributes to long-term population persistence, yet requires a sufficient degree of landscape connectivity. To date, connectivity has mainly been investigated using least-cost analysis and circuit theory, two methods that make assumptions that are hardly applicable to dispersal. While these assumptions can be relaxed by explicitly simulating dispersal trajectories across the landscape, a unified approach for such simulations is lacking. Objectives: Here, we propose and apply a simple three-step approach to simulate dispersal and to assess connectivity using empirical GPS movement data and a set of habitat covariates. Methods: In step one of the proposed approach, we use integrated step-selection functions to fit a mechanistic movement model describing habitat and movement preferences of dispersing individuals. In step two, we apply the parameterized model to simulate dispersal across the study area. In step three, we derive three complementary connectivity maps; a heatmap highlighting frequently traversed areas, a betweenness map pinpointing dispersal corridors, and a map of inter-patch connectivity indicating the presence and intensity of functional links between habitat patches. We demonstrate the applicability of the proposed three-step approach in a case study in which we use GPS data collected on dispersing African wild dogs ( Results: Using step-selection functions we successfully parametrized a detailed dispersal model that described dispersing individuals' habitat and movement preferences, as well as potential interactions among the two. The model substantially outperformed a model that omitted such interactions and enabled us to simulate 80,000 dispersal trajectories across the study area. Conclusion: By explicitly simulating dispersal trajectories, our approach not only requires fewer unrealistic assumptions about dispersal, but also permits the calculation of multiple connectivity metrics that together provide a comprehensive view of landscape connectivity. In our case study, the three derived connectivity maps revealed several wild dog dispersal hotspots and corridors across the extent of our study area. Each map highlighted a different aspect of landscape connectivity, thus emphasizing their complementary nature. Overall, our case study demonstrates that a simulation-based approach offers a simple yet powerful alternative to traditional connectivity modeling techniques. It is therefore useful for a variety of applications in ecological, evolutionary, and conservation research. Graphical abstract: Supplementary Information: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10980-023-01602-4.